On May 11, the price of digital gold tested $82,000, but data from the derivatives market indicates that traders are being cautious.

The hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.

At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $81,073 (+0.4% over the past day).

The annual funding rate for perpetual Bitcoin futures has surged to 6%—marking the first time in over a month that it has moved out of negative territory.

Source: Laevitas.

Additional pressure is coming from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. On May 7 and 8, outflows were recorded from these funds. Institutional interest waned precisely when the coin failed to break through the $82,000 mark multiple times.

Source: SoSoValue.

Reasons for Growth

MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe believes there are no clear reasons for Bitcoin to decline. He notes that the market has settled on the idea of forming a "bear flag" and moving towards $50,000 by the end of the year, a view he disagrees with.

There's clearly no reason to expect #Bitcoin to fall, out of nowhere.

There's the general consensus that we're in a bear flag and that we must see $50K later this year.

How so?

Didn't we have to see no new ATH before the halving either?

The recent shock in February has been… pic.twitter.com/S68oRHV5SF

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 11, 2026

He reminded that before the halving, many also did not expect a new historical maximum. Following the February correction, the asset has remained above the 21-day moving average, turning previous resistances into supports and maintaining steady demand. The Nasdaq index, meanwhile, remains strong.

Van de Poppe forecasts that the next resistance zone lies between $85,000 and $88,000.

The expert pointed out that after each upward breakout, the market anticipates a downward reversal—whether it's the Nasdaq rising or Bitcoin bouncing from $60,000 to $70,000. In his view, participants are missing the bigger picture—a shift in market regime.

Every time there's a breakout upwards, the first response is that the markets must reverse back down.

'The Nasdaq breaks upwards, we must crash!'
'#Bitcoin bounces from $60K to $70K, we must go down!'

People miss the bigger picture and that's a complete regime switch.

The…

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 11, 2026

The analyst suggested that cryptocurrencies could become the primary payment infrastructure for AI. Buyers of spot ETFs are acquiring millions of Bitcoins daily, and the number of holders has reached a historical high. Altcoins are breaking through resistance levels while remaining 80% below their peaks.

Van de Poppe anticipates a market exit from the bear phase and advised investors to stay calm.

Chances for a Breakout

An analyst known as Darkfost stated that Bitcoin has yet to establish itself above the breakeven level for short-term holders (STH). He noted that many market participants are misinterpreting the current charts.

❌ BTC REGAINING THE STH COST BASIS

I’m seeing posts saying that BTC managed to break above the STH cost basis.
In reality, BTC has still not closed above this level, contrary to what some charts suggest.

—💡In this version of the indicator, I have removed as best as possible… pic.twitter.com/IGFa96ZhiL

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 12, 2026

The data distortion occurred due to the transfer of 800,000 BTC on Coinbase. These coins had been dormant for a long time, but after the transfer, the system marked them as new purchases by short-term investors around $84,000. This artificially lowered the average entry price for the STH category.

Darkfost presented a corrected version of the indicator. According to his calculations, the actual purchase price for short-term holders is around $81,800.

The analyst is confident that to resume a bullish trend, the price needs to close a daily or weekly candle above $81,800.

Institutional Players Changed Bitcoin Cycles

The decrease in volatility of the leading cryptocurrency and the influx of institutional capital have altered market cycles, stated CryptoQuant analyst known as Crypto Dan.

"How should we view Bitcoin now?"

Over time, Bitcoin's volatility naturally decreases, which also reduces the volatility of Bitcoin's MVRV.

And currently, with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the involvement of a major country like the U.S., along with the influx of institutions, we should expect movements that differ from the past.

Therefore… pic.twitter.com/jW5ZI2QDAL

— Crypto Dan (@DanCoinInvestor) May 12, 2026

He noted that the range of the MVRV indicator is narrowing along with the asset's price fluctuations. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and interest from major players have made the current cycle unique. Price movements now differ from historical data.

Crypto Dan believes investors should not wait for classic bottom signals. Flexible analysis and quick adaptation are crucial now.

“No one has faced such a cycle before. The readiness to act now will be a condition for high profits in the future,” the expert concluded.

Recall that on May 8, the price of the leading cryptocurrency fell below $80,000 amid U.S. strikes on targets in Iran.