Indicators suggest that bitcoin is proving resilient against escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and increased spot ETF investments, signaling a retreat of marginal sellers.
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 13, 2026, 3:49 p.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on The marginal bitcoin seller may be done liquidating. (sergeitokmakov/Pixabay)SummaryShow- Bitcoin remains above $62,000 despite overall market weakness and heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, indicating that recent sellers may have been worn out.
- Increased spot crypto ETF inflows and a decrease in spot-market transactions also suggest seller fatigue.
- Some analysts warn that the current price stability is primarily driven by speculative futures trading rather than solid spot demand.
With bitcoin's BTC$62,537.31 28% decline earlier this year, indications are emerging that the prolonged panic selling affecting the market may be waning.
One key indicator is bitcoin's price stability over the weekend, which persisted even as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated and oil prices surged on Hyperliquid. This resilience is notably different from March and April, when similar geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices caused significant drops in the cryptocurrency's value.
"BTC maintained around $62k during U.S. airstrikes and the closure of Hormuz, showing little reaction. It seems the weak hands have exited the market," stated Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, in an email.
Another positive signal comes from U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, which garnered a net $197.40 million in investments last week, marking the first positive inflow after eight consecutive weeks of outflows.
"The eight-week streak of ETF outflows has been broken. While it's just one occurrence and not a definitive trend, it suggests the marginal seller is diminishing," De Mare noted, referring to those investors willing to sell even as prices fall, thus reducing their profits. Once these marginal sellers are gone, buyers at that price point have little left to acquire.
Dessislava Ianeva, an analyst at Nexo, echoed this view in her communication with CoinDesk.
"ETF inflows provide another perspective. The last ten days have shown a mix of inflows and outflows, resulting in a slightly positive net change," Ianeva remarked.
"Data from Glassnode indicates that the pressure from spot selling has decreased. Average net selling in June hovered around 2,000 BTC daily; July's figures have dropped to merely 53 BTC daily, representing the calmest month of 2026 outside of April."
However, this relative stability might not signal an immediate recovery.
The recent price rebound from this month's low of $57,700 is largely fueled by derivatives traders rather than spot market buyers, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro.
"Demand for Bitcoin is rebounding quickly, but the surge is predominantly driven by retail traders in speculative futures markets. Meanwhile, the spot market remains less favorable," he noted.
Without a significant resurgence in buying liquidity, prices could stay stagnant for an extended period, he cautioned.
Such caution is warranted ahead of upcoming macroeconomic data that may affect interest rate strategies and risk appetites.
The U.S. CPI for June is set to be released on Tuesday, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's inaugural Congressional testimony is scheduled for this week. These developments could significantly impact market trends and either support or hinder the recovery.