MarketsBitcoin Approaches Key Turning Point as Rare On-Chain Indicators Align
Chris Sullivan from Hyperion Decimus notes that four historically significant indicators have aligned, positioning bitcoin just one step away from a pivotal confirmation.
By Helene Braun Jun 25, 2026, 3:14 p.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on SummaryShow- Four rare on-chain indicators monitored by Hyperion Decimus have aligned for only the sixth time in bitcoin's history, which has coincided with market bottoms in the past.
- According to portfolio manager Chris Sullivan, bitcoin is poised to either surpass a significant resistance level of $82,000 or decline to approximately $48,000 in a final capitulation within the next 90 days before a new uptrend can be established.
- Sullivan believes that developments in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and enhancements in on-chain fundamentals outweigh negative market narratives, even though he maintains that the bear market pattern has not yet fully played out.
Bitcoin BTC$59,481.34 may be nearing a crucial turning point, as a unique combination of on-chain signals has emerged that historically aligns with market bottoms, according to Chris Sullivan, co-founder and portfolio manager at Hyperion Decimus.
A recent report from the hedge fund indicated that four proprietary on-chain signals have aligned only five times throughout bitcoin's 15-year existence, with each prior instance marking a cycle bottom. However, Sullivan noted that this situation still lacks final technical confirmation.
"We have literally like every box checked, except for a final pattern," Sullivan stated in an interview with CoinDesk. "Either we have to break above the $82,000 pivot to confirm, or we have one final low, call it between $54,000 and $57,000. Perhaps a wick to $48,000 to capitulate. One of those two conditions we expect to happen in the next 90 days."
If either of these scenarios materializes, Sullivan anticipates that bitcoin could rapidly separate from broader financial markets. Currently, the crypto asset is trading at $59,386, having dipped 23% over the past month, further distancing itself from U.S. equities, which had reached record highs before facing pressure this month.
This perspective contrasts with the cautious market sentiment following a period of lackluster price movements. Numerous notable voices in the crypto space have expressed concerns regarding the future of bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Earlier this week, billionaire hedge fund manager Philippe Laffont expressed that he has grown "a little bit more worried" about bitcoin's outlook, particularly with rising opportunities for risk investments. Last month, billionaire investor Mark Cuban revealed he sold most of his bitcoin as it failed to serve as a hedge during geopolitical instability and dollar weakness.
However, Sullivan contends that investors have become overly fixated on narratives rather than market mechanics.
"Narrative is nothing more than people trying to explain why a condition exists or persists instead of asking the correct question, which is how," he noted.
One major enigma, according to Sullivan, is bitcoin's deviation from its historical correlation with global liquidity.
He explained that bitcoin has typically mirrored changes in global money supply, or global M2, with a significant degree of correlation. This relationship has diverged for about nine months, based on his analysis.
This disconnect is not limited to bitcoin, as Sullivan pointed out that precious metals have also failed to react in ways that historical macro relationships would suggest.
Rather than focusing on macroeconomic factors, he believes that structural changes in the crypto markets since the introduction of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have influenced price behavior and created a market structure that reduces volatility by promoting hedging practices.
Despite the subdued prices, Sullivan identifies several fundamental indicators that are improving beneath the surface. He highlighted an increase in wallet activity, a rise in bitcoin holdings being moved off exchanges, and continued robust network metrics.
"The backdrop of anybody who pays attention to on-chain for astute patient prudent capital for raw beta exposure, it's about as attractive a risk reward as we're going to see," he remarked.
Still, Sullivan emphasized that he does not believe the bear market has definitively concluded. "I do not think the bear market is over, because I'm looking at the fractals," he stated. "I want to see a completed pattern. I do not see that yet."
Until bitcoin either surpasses the significant resistance around $82,000 or undergoes what Sullivan perceives as a final capitulation, he expects investor skepticism to persist, even as data increasingly suggests a potential turning point.
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CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High
CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
By CoinDesk ResearchJun 15, 2026In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
Why it matters:
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
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