Following the June CPI report, the likelihood of a rate hike dropped from 43% to 13%, leading analysts to focus on the upcoming September FOMC meeting for further insights.
By Shaurya MalwaUpdated Jul 15, 2026, 5:29 a.m. Published Jul 15, 2026, 5:19 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on SummaryShow- Bitcoin surged approximately 3.6% to approach $64,800 after U.S. inflation figures fell more than anticipated, significantly lowering the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike.
- The June CPI showed headline inflation at 3.5% and core inflation at 2.6%, buoying cryptocurrencies and global stocks as traders shifted back to riskier assets.
- Experts indicate that Bitcoin remains highly reactive to interest-rate forecasts, with the latest statistics alleviating immediate downward pressure but highlighting the Fed’s September meeting and the sustainability of Bitcoin ETF inflows as the next crucial tests.
Bitcoin rose to nearly $64,800 on Wednesday, marking its strongest performance in several weeks, driven by a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. inflation that led traders to retract their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month.
In June, headline inflation decreased to 3.5% from 4.2%, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, fell to 2.6% from 2.9%. This decline in core inflation suggests that the easing is not solely due to lower energy costs, removing one of the strongest arguments for a rate hike.
After the inflation report, the probability of a rate increase plummeted from 43% to 13%, while the two-year Treasury yield decreased by six basis points.
Over a 24-hour period, Bitcoin gained 3.6% and has risen 3.3% over the week, with trading volume reaching approximately $31 billion. Ether also performed well, nearing $1,880, up 5.3% for the day and 7.1% for the week. Other cryptocurrencies like Hyperliquid's HYPE rose 6.4% to $67, XRP climbed 3.7% to $1.10, Solana increased 3.6% to $78, Dogecoin lifted 2.9%, and BNB added 1.9% to $579.
Increased interest rates typically pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets, as higher rates make cash and Treasury bonds more appealing, diminishing the incentive to hold assets that yield no interest and can fluctuate significantly.
Conversely, reduced inflation decreases the likelihood of rate hikes, promoting a reversal of funds back into risk assets.
In other market developments, Brent crude oil prices rose by 1% to over $85 per barrel, marking three consecutive days of increases, notably after President Trump threatened further military action against Iran and the U.S. resumed its blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices have surged 11% over just two sessions.
Equities followed a similar trend to cryptocurrencies, with MSCI's Asia Pacific index rising 2.3%, its largest increase in a month, driven by gains in technology stocks. South Korea's Kospi soared 8.2%, reclaiming its status as the world's top-performing major benchmark this year, with SK Hynix experiencing a 13% jump in Seoul after its American depositary receipts surged by 27%.
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, commented, "Bitcoin remains a rate-sensitive risk asset rather than a macro hedge," explaining that the recent data lessens immediate downside risks but does not establish a strong upward trend. He noted that core inflation at 2.6% still exceeds the Fed's 2% target, allowing the central bank to maintain its current stance rather than advocate for cuts. Ko emphasized the importance of the upcoming September FOMC meeting and the dollar's trajectory, as well as whether Bitcoin ETF inflows can be sustained.