Bitcoin has received a positive signal from a reliable momentum indicator, suggesting potential upward movement. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, which is a crucial technical analysis tool, has turned bullish, indicating that the recent rise above $64,000 may have further room to grow.

A long-term MACD histogram indicates bullish momentum

As of now, Bitcoin BTC$63,795.85 has increased by nearly 10% this month and could be on the verge of crossing the $70,000 mark, a level that has previously limited its gains. The MACD histogram is known for its ability to illustrate the strength and direction of market trends. Crossovers above the zero line indicate a bullish shift, while those below signal bearish momentum.

The MACD typically utilizes a 12-day and a 26-day moving average along with a 9-day signal line. However, these standard settings can lead to short-term fluctuations and false signals. To mitigate this, many traders opt for longer settings, such as 50-day and 100-day averages paired with a 9-day signal.

This longer-term MACD histogram has recently crossed above zero, indicating a positive shift in momentum. In simpler terms, this suggests that Bitcoin's recent price increases could persist rather than quickly fade. Currently, Bitcoin is trading just above $64,000.

While traders generally do not depend on a single indicator for market trends, this MACD has proven to be a reliable standalone tool, particularly during the price decline from its peak of $126,000. Since October, negative crossovers have consistently indicated the onset of significant downturns, while positive crossovers have preceded notable recovery rallies, including those observed between December and January and from February to May.

BTC's daily chart. (TradingView)

The latest bullish crossover suggests a significant bounce may be forthcoming, but it does not necessarily confirm the beginning of a new uptrend. A more substantial movement would require additional confirmation, which makes the following key resistance levels crucial.

Important resistance levels to monitor

The first critical level is the 50-day simple moving average, currently at approximately $65,434. This figure represents the average price of Bitcoin over the past 50 days, roughly two months.

Traders across both cryptocurrency and traditional markets closely observe this line to assess near-term momentum. A clear breakthrough above this level is often interpreted as a sign of growing bullish strength.

The second significant level is $67,292, which was the mid-June high. This price point marked a brief recovery from early June lows near $60,000, but aggressive selling soon followed, pushing the price back down. Surpassing $67,292 would signal a win for buyers, indicating they have overcome a previous area of strong selling pressure.

The third and most critical level is the 200-day moving average, currently near $71,147. This widely-followed long-term trend indicator served as a major resistance point in early May, halting a rebound that had begun from February lows around $60,000. A decisive move above this level would strongly suggest that a full bullish trend is emerging. Until Bitcoin can break through these resistance zones, bulls should remain cautiously optimistic.

Monitoring the $80,000 threshold

Lastly, it's important to note the potential for volatility around the $80,000 level. In Deribit’s options market, the notional open interest, which represents the dollar value of options contracts, at $80,000 exceeds $1.21 billion, the highest of any strike on the exchange. As prices near this level, the activity from traders holding these options could influence both the spot and futures markets, leading to increased price fluctuations.

BTC options on Deribit: OI distribution. (Deribit)Bitcoin NewsTechnical Analysis