MarketsShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailBitcoin Metric Indicates Bear Market Bottom Has Been Reached Again
Over half of the circulating bitcoin is currently experiencing unrealized losses as the price approaches key historical bear-market support levels.
By James Van Straten | Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 4, 2026, 10:20 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on
Total Supply in profit/Loss (Glassnode)Key Points:
- Bitcoin in circulation that is valued at a loss has surpassed those in profit, with 10.5 million BTC currently underwater compared to 9.8 million BTC in profit.
- This crossover trend has historically marked significant bear market lows.
- The bitcoin price recently hit its 200-week moving average at $61,300, a crucial support level that has been reached during every past bear market.
The volume of BTC$63,729.63 supply at a loss has reached a pivotal bear-market level, exceeding 10 million BTC, which means over half of the total supply is currently at unrealized loss.
Data from Glassnode indicates that the loss supply peaked at approximately 10.5 million BTC, coinciding with the price dropping to $61,300 on Thursday. Given that the total circulating supply is roughly 20 million BTC, this indicates that more than half of the coins are experiencing unrealized losses.
Meanwhile, the supply that remains profitable has decreased to around 9.8 million BTC. This marks the first instance in the current market cycle where the quantity of bitcoin held at a loss has outnumbered that held in profit.
Historically, such a shift has only been observed in severe bear market conditions and often aligns with major market bottoms.
To provide context, during the 2015 bear market, the balance between loss and profit supply remained nearly stable for almost a year before the market rebounded. In 2019, this period lasted about six months. The capitulation triggered by COVID-19 in March 2020 was shorter, spanning approximately one month, while the 2022 bear market saw this state persist for roughly six months.
It is important to note that while this signal has historically been connected to bear-market lows, the length of these periods has varied widely, complicating predictions regarding how long bitcoin may stay at low levels.
Adding to the relevance of the recent downturn, bitcoin has touched its 200-week moving average, which is about $61,300. This measure serves as a long-term trend indicator, averaging bitcoin's price over the last 200 weeks, and has historically functioned as a major support level in all previous bear market cycles.
If bitcoin were to drop below the psychologically significant $60,000 mark, the next substantial support level would be approximately $54,000, which aligns with the realized price. The realized price represents the average cost at which all bitcoin in circulation were acquired, based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. Historically, bitcoin has traded below its Realized Price during every significant bear market.
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