The Bitcoin market indicates a neutral trend with decreasing leverage and easing selling pressure, suggesting potential stabilization.
The cryptocurrency market is currently in a phase described as "neutral or slightly bullish," according to analyst CoinNiel from CryptoQuant. This shift comes as leverage pressure diminishes and short-term selling eases.
CoinNiel's analysis indicates that while there has been a net inflow of approximately 2,196 BTC to centralized exchanges in the past week, cumulative outflows over the last two weeks have reached around 8,197 BTC. He noted that these mixed signals suggest the market is undergoing a volatile liquidity correction rather than establishing a clear trend.
“Mixed indicators suggest a volatile liquidity correction phase rather than a clear trend,” CoinNiel explained.
Although long positions still slightly dominate the market, the overall leverage and optimism have waned, with open interest in derivatives steadily increasing. CoinNiel estimates a 55% chance of a favorable outcome for Bitcoin, emphasizing the need to monitor funding volumes and exchange flows to confirm any emerging trends.
Market Dynamics and Observations
Analysts at Bitcoin Vector have noted a gradual absorption of aggressive selling that characterized the bear market, indicating that selling pressure is diminishing, although overall market conviction remains low. They caution that while holders are currently realizing more losses than gains, this may signal an early phase of stabilization rather than a confirmed recovery.
Selling pressure is fading, but conviction has not returned yet.
Trader gum has drawn comparisons between the current market structure and previous cycles, noting that the weekly bullish divergence seen in 2022 lasted for 161 days before a sustained upward trend began, while a similar divergence in 2026 has persisted for 147 days. He predicts that the current correction will culminate in a new local low, potentially between $45,000 and $65,000 for Bitcoin.
Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a positive trend, with a net inflow of $75.5 million from July 13 to July 17, marking a second consecutive week of growth for these products.
