The metric indicates Bitcoin's market price is nearing its realized fair value after recent declines.
By Omkar Godbole, James Van Straten|Edited by Aoyon Ashraf Jun 8, 2026, 12:02 p.m. 3 min readMake preferred on The key metric for BTC is approaching a historical low point. (Pixabay)Key Points:
- Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score is nearing the historical bear-market bottom around zero.
- This metric shows that Bitcoin's market price is getting close to its realized fair value following the recent sell-off.
- Previous cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022 saw significant recoveries begin once the Z-Score entered this accumulation zone.
Following a substantial selloff last week, a closely monitored Bitcoin metric is nearing a level that has historically indicated bear market bottoms.
This metric, known as the market value-to-realized value (MVRV) Z-Score, indicates that every major Bitcoin cycle bottom has aligned with the Z-Score touching or briefly dipping below zero (into the green zone, as depicted in the chart).
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score. (TradingView)Currently, the Z-Score is approaching the zone that has historically coincided with the lowest points of previous bear markets. This occurrence was noted during the 2011-2012 crash, again in 2014, and late in 2018. Most recently, it dipped below zero in the latter half of 2022, establishing a price bottom that set the stage for a three-year bull market.
Understanding the MVRV Z-Score
This metric assesses the divergence of Bitcoin's market value—its current worth based on market price—from its realized price.
The realized price, which is widely accepted as close to fair value, is calculated by averaging the prices of every Bitcoin since its last onchain transaction.
When the market price is significantly higher than the realized price, Bitcoin is deemed expensive compared to its historical values. Conversely, when the market price is near or below the realized price, Bitcoin is seen as inexpensive. The Z-Score quantifies the difference between these two figures and evaluates how extreme this deviation is statistically.
The outcome is a single line that cuts through the fluctuations of daily price movements, indicating where the price stands in relation to the broader market cycle. A high Z-Score suggests a heated market, while a low or negative score indicates otherwise.
Currently, the Z-Score is at 0.24, just above the upper limit of the historically significant "green zone," which starts around zero and extends slightly beneath it.
This means it is very close to the "accumulation" zone. Importantly, this is not a specific price point, but rather a gauge of how stretched or compressed Bitcoin's market value is relative to its realized value.
Is the Bottom Truly in?
Despite the positive indicators, the bottom may not be fully established yet, as the activity of wallet holders suggests that further selling could still be necessary.
Onchain data indicates that the Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV), which analyzes the profitability of coins held for over 155 days, and the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV), which focuses on coins held for less than 155 days, have yet to converge.
Historically, a significant cycle low has formed when these two metrics close the gap, as seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022.
LTH/STH MVRV (Glassnode)At present, the STH-MVRV is at 0.84, while the LTH-MVRV remains high at 1.29. This indicates that long-term holders still possess considerable unrealized profits, suggesting that Bitcoin may need to experience further declines before a typical bear market bottom is confirmed.
While pinpointing market bottoms is inherently challenging, the harsh selloff last week, which erased hundreds of billions from crypto's market value, has led to conditions that historically precede recoveries beginning to surface.
Read more: Bitcoin, ether eye worst weekly rout since FTX collapse as cryptos shed $390 billion
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