MarketsBitcoin Maintains July Gains Amidst Market Challenges
Despite facing various negative factors, Bitcoin has shown resilience, although traders are still wary of potential rate hikes and upcoming employment data.
By Krisztian Sandor|Edited by Nikhilesh De Jul 31, 2026, 8:50 p.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on
Bitcoin (BTC) price on July 31 (CoinDesk)Summary- Bitcoin is set to conclude July with a gain of approximately 7.5%, despite facing several challenges, including heightened expectations for rate hikes, rising bond yields, and an AI sell-off.
- Analysts believe Bitcoin has performed better than stocks because much of the leveraged trading was cleared out in late June, reducing forced selling during the recent volatility.
- Investors are now looking ahead to U.S. jobs data and the Federal Reserve's direction to determine if inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will resume.
Bitcoin BTC$62,885.66 is wrapping up July on a stronger note than many predicted.
Although it dipped below $63,000 on Friday, down roughly 3% for the day, the leading cryptocurrency is still on track for a monthly increase of about 7.5% — a commendable performance given the various challenges the market has faced.
The last few weeks have seen rising speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, increasing bond yields, a significant downturn in AI investments, and most recently, a notable security breach involving Coldcard, a prominent hardware wallet for Bitcoin.
Despite these issues, Bitcoin has managed to avoid the deeper declines that many anticipated, maintaining its position above the lows seen during the bear market, even as risk appetite has diminished in other sectors.
Bitcoin monthly returns (CoinGlass)Bitcoin Outperforms Stocks
This resilience can be attributed in part to market positioning, according to analysts from Bitfinex.
Crypto markets entered the Federal Reserve meeting with significantly lower leverage than stocks, as many derivatives traders were cleared out during the late June sell-off that saw BTC drop below $58,000 on July 1. Since that time, average daily liquidations have remained far below the typical range of $400 million to $500 million for this year, indicating minimal forced selling despite the macroeconomic shocks, Bitfinex noted.
"Crypto fell less than leveraged equity themes because the forced-selling fuel was already spent," the analysts explained.
Ongoing Security Concerns
In a separate issue, the market is also processing the repercussions of a significant exploit involving Coldcard, which led to the theft of at least $38 million in Bitcoin.
This incident has not had a major impact on price movements, but it serves as a reminder of the increasing number of digital asset-related exploits, raising concerns about the risks associated with self-custody, a core principle of cryptocurrency.
Paul Howard, director at trading firm Wincent, noted, "The proceeds haven't yet been liquidated, but the potential for liquidation will likely impact Bitcoin pricing in the short term." He added that the exploit underscores the ongoing operational risks linked to self-custody.
Read more: Coldcard's $38 million exploit shakes faith in self-custody, may push investors to ETFs
Focus on Employment Data and ETF Trends
Looking forward, macroeconomic uncertainty remains a key theme.
Jeff Anderson, managing partner at STS Digital, remarked that markets might be entering "a new volatility regime" as investors shift between expectations for rate cuts, pauses, and hikes. This uncertainty is likely to keep pressure on high-beta assets like Bitcoin until the economic outlook becomes clearer.
Bitfinex analysts predict that investors will remain cautious ahead of next week's U.S. jobs report, which is the next significant macroeconomic event following the Federal Reserve meeting. They believe the more pressing concern is whether inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will return once there is a clearer understanding of the Fed's future actions.
"We anticipate positioning will remain defensive while the risk of rate hikes persists," the analysts stated. "The signal for traders, which has not yet materialized, is whether institutional buying will be aggressive or indifferent to price changes."
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, noted, "Our base case suggests a volatile August with Bitcoin remaining within a range unless real yields decrease or ETF inflows turn consistently positive again. The market can handle a neutral Fed, but not an appreciating dollar, rising real yields, and weak ETF demand simultaneously."
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Why it matters:
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