Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has decreased to 36%, yet analysts caution that this does not mean the market is becoming safer, as cheaper options could lead to more significant price movements. This insight was shared in a discussion with CoinDesk.

Adam Himes, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, pointed out that lower volatility makes it cheaper to open positions. He noted that when the market approaches a level with a high concentration of bets, market maker hedging can accelerate price fluctuations.

15-minute BTC/USDT chart from Binance. Source: TradingView.

According to Himes, this market phase should not be interpreted as a "calm before the storm," especially given the weak trading volumes and limited market depth.

"Low volatility should not be confused with low risk. It is a reason to be cautious with leverage," Himes added.

Wincent, a senior director at a market-making firm, Paul Howard, noted a decline in demand for put options and a lack of strong bullish bets. He suggested that the market might establish a minimal price range in the current cycle over the coming weeks.

Among potential positive catalysts, he mentioned progress with the CLARITY Act and institutional inflows into crypto ETFs. Conversely, he identified risks such as stalled negotiations over the Hormuz Strait and inflationary shocks.

Additional Insights

Analysts from Alphractal reported on X that it has been 303 days since Bitcoin reached its all-time high, and during this period, the cryptocurrency has experienced a decline of 48.4%.

It has now been 303 days since Bitcoin’s all-time high, and BTC continues to move through one of the longest drawdown periods of this cycle.

Bitcoin is currently about 48.4% below its ATH, while the deepest drawdown of this cycle reached 53.1% on Day 267.

Compared with previous… pic.twitter.com/uFdrOZuAX4

— Alphractal (@Alphractal) August 5, 2026

The deepest drop in this cycle was 53.1% on day 267.

"The question now is not just how much further Bitcoin can fall, but how long it will take for the trend to finally change," emphasized Alphractal.

Junior analyst Axel Adler noted that even with Bitcoin priced around $64,600, the demand indicator for the asset has remained negative for five consecutive months. He assessed that the current rebound still lacks sufficient momentum.

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 6, 2026

However, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have been positive for the third consecutive session, with $244.4 million in net inflows recorded on August 5.

Source: SoSoValue.

On the same day, Ethereum ETFs saw an inflow of $60 million.

Additionally, CryptoQuant has indicated that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are being accumulated by whales.