Bitcoin is witnessing a historic sell-off of older coins, with long-term holders exiting, affecting market dynamics and pricing.
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a significant sell-off of older coins, with analytics firm Glassnode noting a precarious balance in the market, particularly around a critical support level of $81,100.
CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi has predicted that the years 2024-2025 will witness the most substantial release of long-term Bitcoin supply ever recorded. He emphasized that the current market activity indicates not just a price cycle but a shift in the demographic of holders, with long-term holders selling off their assets.
“Bitcoin is not only undergoing a price cycle, but potentially a transition in who holds it and why—and long-term holder supply behavior is one of the clearest on-chain signals of that shift.” – By @KriptoMevsimi
Mevsimi analyzed the active supply metric for coins that have remained untouched for over two years. Current sales volumes for these assets have exceeded those seen during the bullish phases of 2017 and 2021. Unlike previous patterns where dormant bitcoins were activated during price surges, the current activity features older coins and is occurring with less market volatility.
This trend suggests a fundamental shift in capital movement, as early investors who valued Bitcoin for its scarcity and self-custody are now liquidating their positions. New participants are entering the market, driven by price movements, macroeconomic factors, and global liquidity conditions.
Sales have slowed in early 2026 compared to the previous two years, but whether this marks a brief pause or the start of a new accumulation phase remains to be seen.
Market Dynamics and Selling Pressure
The Bitcoin market is currently characterized by a fragile structure, with prices hovering around key levels. Glassnode reports that there is a lack of convincing signals for long-term accumulation.
“#Bitcoin is consolidating in a low-volume regime, with easing spot pressure, light leverage, and volatility priced as short-lived rather than structural.” – glassnode
Recent buyers are creating selling resistance, limiting potential price growth. Analysts have identified two critical levels: a support level at $81,100 and a resistance level around $98,400, which corresponds to the average purchase price of short-term holders. Attempts to break above these levels are met with selling from investors who accumulated during the early part of 2025.
Profile of Sellers
The primary selling pressure is attributed to participants who bought coins 3-6 months ago, now realizing losses as prices revert to their entry points above $110,000. Additionally, a significant supply cluster above $100,000 from long-term holders adds to the selling pressure, making it challenging to breach those levels without new demand.
Traders have shifted towards realizing small profits, preferring quick exits rather than holding out for larger gains, indicating a cautious market sentiment.
Spot and Derivatives Market Overview
On the spot market, conditions have improved slightly, with platforms like Binance showing a resurgence in buying activity. Conversely, Coinbase, which previously exerted selling pressure, has seen reduced activity, contributing to price stabilization.
Corporate treasury actions have been largely neutral, providing little systemic support to the market. The derivatives market is described as inactive, with low futures volumes and minimal leverage usage. The options market is focusing on short-term risks, while long-term outlooks remain stable.
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s current price stability is not due to new investments but rather a slowdown in selling activities. The market is in a low liquidity environment, awaiting a catalyst to spur renewed interest from significant players. Notably, CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno reported that for the first time, the share of new whales in Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has overtaken that of long-term holders.
