In the midst of a historic sell-off of old coins, Glassnode has recorded a "fragile equilibrium" with key support at $81,100.
CryptoQuant analyst known as Kripto Mevsimi has labeled the years 2024-2025 as a period of the "largest release" of long-term supply of the first cryptocurrency in history.
Largest Long-Term Bitcoin Supply Release in History
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 22, 2026
“Bitcoin is not only undergoing a price cycle, but potentially a transition in who holds it and why—and long-term holder supply behavior is one of the clearest on-chain signals of that shift.” – By @KriptoMevsimi pic.twitter.com/LfXE7tImtC
The expert analyzed the metric of active supply for coins that have not moved in over two years. Current sales volumes of such assets have surpassed those seen during the bullish cycles of 2017 and 2021.
Historically, the activation of "sleeping" bitcoins has coincided with sharp price spikes and an influx of speculative capital. However, the current activity is occurring with less market noise and involves significantly older coins.
According to the analyst, this indicates a structural rotation of capital. Early investors, who bet on the asset's scarcity and self-custody, are exiting their positions. Bitcoins are transitioning to new participants whose decisions are influenced by price, macroeconomics, and global liquidity.
Data from early 2026 showed a slowdown in sales compared to the peaks of the past two years, but a complete reversal of the trend has not yet occurred, noted Kripto Mevsimi. Over the year, it will become clear whether this is a temporary exhaustion of sales or the beginning of a new accumulation phase.
Fragile Equilibrium and Selling Pressure
The on-chain structure of Bitcoin remains fragile. The price fluctuates around key cost levels of the coins, and convincing signals of long-term accumulation are absent, according to Glassnode's report.
Failed Breakout#Bitcoin is consolidating in a low-volume regime, with easing spot pressure, light leverage, and volatility priced as short-lived rather than structural.
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 21, 2026
Read the full Week On-Chain👇https://t.co/zQyLdUEMAI pic.twitter.com/JxKYdQ9CHO
Experts noted a persistent supply overhang: recent buyers are creating resistance, limiting growth potential. Short-term rallies are being used to exit positions (distribution).
The market is operating in a moderate correction mode. Analysts identified two key levels:
- Support: $81,100 — the True Market Mean Price level.
- Resistance: ~$98,400 — the average purchase price of short-term holders.
Attempts to establish a foothold above these levels face selling from investors who accumulated positions in Q1-Q3 of 2025. The current structure resembles the situation at the beginning of 2022, when repeated failures to break even for recent buyers prolonged consolidation.
Who is Selling?
The main selling pressure is coming from participants who purchased coins 3-6 months ago. They are realizing losses as the price returns to their entry levels (above $110,000), aiming to reduce risks.
Additional pressure is created by a large cluster of supply above $100,000, formed by long-term holders. Without a strong influx of new demand, these levels will remain difficult to breach.
There has also been an increase in activity from traders realizing minimal profits (0-20%). Market participants prefer quick exits from positions with small margins, not expecting a continuation of the trend.
Spot Market and Derivatives
The situation on spot exchanges has improved. Binance and aggregated data show a return to buying. Coinbase, previously a source of selling pressure, has reduced activity, stabilizing prices.
However, corporate treasuries are acting passively. Flows from companies are episodic and hover around neutral values, providing no systemic support to the market.
The derivatives segment has been characterized by Glassnode as a "ghost town":
- futures volumes are compressed, and leverage usage is low;
- the options market is pricing risks only for the near term, while long-term expectations remain stable;
- dealer positioning (gamma) below $90,000 is negative, which increases volatility during declines. Above this level, "long gamma" operates, which dampens any attempts at growth.
According to analysts, Bitcoin is finding a bottom not due to an influx of new money, but because of a pause in selling. The market is in a state of low liquidity and awaiting a catalyst that could rekindle interest from major players.
It is worth noting that CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno reported that for the first time in history, the share of "new" whales in the realized capitalization of the first cryptocurrency has surpassed that of long-term holders.