Your day-ahead look for July 17, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 17, 2026, 11:48 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on BVIV vs Kospi implied volatility (Claude/TradingView/Investing.com)This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.Amid rising geopolitical tensions impacting bitcoin BTC$63,269.14 and the wider cryptocurrency market, new data reveals the repercussions of this year's AI enthusiasm waning.
The Kospi index from South Korea, which has greatly benefited from the AI surge, has seen a decline of nearly 25% over the past month. According to options market analysis, this index is now perceived to carry at least double the risk compared to bitcoin, a cryptocurrency often noted for its high volatility.
Specifically, the 30-day implied volatility (IV) index for the Kospi has jumped to an annualized 81%, which is more than twice the bitcoin equivalent, BVIV, standing at approximately 38%, based on information from Bloomberg and Volmex. Implied volatility reflects the demand for options contracts; higher demand suggests a greater perceived necessity for safeguards against price fluctuations.
A significant number of Korean retail investors pursuing high returns via margin trading and leveraged ETFs have encountered forced liquidations, amounting to over $2 trillion within a brief span of under three months. The increased volatility of a major stock index compared to bitcoin may serve as a cautionary signal for other global markets that have witnessed significant risk-taking fueled by the AI craze.
For advocates of bitcoin, the fact that BTC is exhibiting less volatility than the Kospi is seen as a significant achievement. Nevertheless, bitcoin remains approximately twice as volatile and risky as the S&P 500 index, which has a 30-day volatility index (VIX) below 20%. A key milestone for bitcoin supporters would be when the VIX surpasses the BVIV in cost.
Currently, bitcoin's price is facing downward pressure, trading below its notable 50-day moving average; however, there are signs of hope. Analytics firm Nansen has noted that wallets typically quick to shift during geopolitical tensions have not significantly transitioned into stablecoins.
"This aligns with previous Middle East escalations: Short-term leveraged positions are liquidated, followed by renewed accumulation," remarked Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, in an email.
Market analysts are also calling attention to the upcoming hearings in Washington D.C.
"The Clarity Act is approaching what could be its final examination today, with the industry pushing for its passage while the bill encounters delays due to Trump conflict of interest clauses and fresh Senate challenges before the August break. This is the regulatory clarity that institutional investors have been eagerly anticipating," analysts from Marex stated.
Stay alert!
For insights into today's altcoin and derivatives activity, check out Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive overview of this week's events, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Bitcoin under $63,000 after new U.S. strike on Iran. Trump's China comment adds to uncertainty (CoinDesk): Bitcoin and Asian stocks fell Friday after U.S. airstrikes on Iran heightened tensions in the Middle East. President Donald Trump’s claims that China interfered with the 2020 U.S. election also negatively affected risk sentiment, leading to a drop in the Australian dollar.
- Asian shares sink, with Tokyo down more than 5% as slumping AI stocks drag world markets lower (AP): Global shares mostly declined, with Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index dropping 4% as significant selling pressure in computer chip manufacturers and AI-related stocks weighed on the markets. S&P 500 index futures decreased by 0.8%, while oil prices surged.
- Airbnb CEO says X account was hacked, attacker posted AI-slop on tokenization (CoinDesk): Airbnb's CEO, Brian Chesky, reported that his X account was hacked, resulting in the attacker posting a thread promoting tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) that faced criticism for being overly reliant on AI.
- DOG Mode vs. BIP-110: Inside the Bitcoin client built to bypass data restrictions (CoinDesk): Leonidas, a well-known figure in Bitcoin's Ordinals and Runes community, announced the development of an open-source Bitcoin client called DOG Mode, designed to eliminate two restrictions imposed by Bitcoin Core, the software used by the majority of Bitcoin nodes.
Today’s signal
ETH/BTC is now trapped between key averages. (TradingView)The chart illustrates daily fluctuations in the ether-bitcoin ratio, alongside the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages.
Recently, the ratio has surpassed its 100-day average, indicating a breakout above a technical barrier that has limited recovery attempts multiple times since January.
However, the 200-day average continues to serve as a significant resistance point. A successful breach would signal a major positive indication for sustained ether performance relative to bitcoin.
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Gate Leads Spot Market Share Gains as CEX Volumes Rise for First Time in Five Months
Gate Leads Spot Market Share Gains as CEX Volumes Rise for First Time in Five Months
CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
By CoinDesk ResearchJul 13, 2026CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
Why it matters:
CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
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