Your day-ahead look for July 22, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 22, 2026, 11:23 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Don't forget the cost of capital. (TradingView)This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
With bitcoin BTC$65,968.48 recovering, market sentiment has turned positive, leading many analysts to suggest that the recent price uptick may signal the beginning of a significant bull market that could exceed last year's high of $126,000.
However, an analysis of bitcoin and Nasdaq valuations, when factored with the costs represented by the U.S. 10-year yield (US10Y), indicates that any bull markets might be more gradual. (check Today’s signal)
Both the BTC/US10Y and Nasdaq/US10Y ratios have not surpassed their peaks from 2020-2021, despite their prices in dollars reaching new highs in the last year. This suggests that when considering the cost of capital, the true macro peaks for bitcoin and the tech sector likely occurred during 2020-21.
This gap between nominal prices and yield-adjusted valuations can resolve in two potential ways: either interest rates drop, reducing the denominator and pushing these ratios towards a breakout, or asset prices decrease to align with the underlying weaknesses indicated by the ratios.
The latter scenario seems more probable for a couple of reasons. Firstly, recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have been notably hawkish, with some hinting at possible interest rate hikes.
Additionally, the rise in energy prices complicates the situation. While bitcoin's recent surge from $58,000 to $66,000 is notable, its performance relative to WTI crude oil futures has worsened. This suggests that oil is outpacing even the most high-risk assets, indicating a potential new wave of cost-push inflation may be on the horizon.
The key takeaway is that sustaining a bull market could be more challenging than anticipated by traders. If oil prices continue to rise, we might experience a rapid "snap adjustment," with nominal prices declining sharply to correspond with their yield-adjusted valuations. Stay vigilant.
Read more: For insights into today's altcoin and derivatives market activities, check out Crypto Markets Today. For a detailed schedule of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Crypto Clarity Act still at mercy of ethics section as Democrats balk at Trump deal (CoinDesk): U.S. Senate Democrats are reportedly dissatisfied with certain controversial aspects of the crypto market structure bill, specifically the section prohibiting government officials from having significant crypto ties.
- Movement Labs files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy months after token scandal (CoinDesk): Movement Labs has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, reporting fewer than 1,000 creditors, assets ranging between $100,000 and $500,000, and liabilities exceeding $1 million.
- Balance stablecoin collapses 99% after $1 million exploit drains its bitcoin vaults (CoinDesk): Balance Coin, an algorithmic stablecoin with low circulation that aimed to maintain a dollar peg, plummeted over 99% after a pricing flaw was exploited, wiping out nearly all of its approximately $3.5 million nominal value. The attacker stole $912,000.
- Oil prices jump 4% as Rubio says Iran ‘not serious’ about peace talks (CNBC): Oil prices surged by 4% following the 11th consecutive round of U.S. strikes against Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that the Strait of Hormuz remains a contentious issue between both parties.
Today’s signal
BTC charts. (TradingView)The left panel displays bitcoin’s price adjusted for the 10-year Treasury yield. The ratio peaked in 2021, and the 2025 bullish market for BTC fell short of reaching that high. A similar trend is observed in Nasdaq.
Both indicate that any potential bull runs might be more gradual unless interest rates drop significantly.
Furthermore, the BTC-WTI crude oil ratio has decreased in recent days, suggesting that energy prices are rising faster than gains in digital risk assets. This could signal a warning of another inflation wave approaching.
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TRON Network - Q2 2026
TRON Network - Q2 2026
In Q2; TRON's stablecoin dominance rose to 28.7%, USDT supply on TRON hit $89B ATH, $89M in protocol fees (2nd to Hyperliquid), TRX +3%, and deepening institutional & agentic reach.
By CoinDesk Research23 hours agoCommissioned byTronIn Q2; TRON's stablecoin dominance rose to 28.7%, USDT supply on TRON hit $89B ATH, $89M in protocol fees (2nd to Hyperliquid), TRX +3%, and deepening institutional & agentic reach.
Why it matters:
In Q2; TRON's stablecoin dominance rose to 28.7%, USDT supply on TRON hit $89B ATH, $89M in protocol fees (2nd to Hyperliquid), TRX +3%, and deepening institutional & agentic reach.
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