Realized losses for holders of digital gold have reached $4.5 billion, the highest in three years. CryptoQuant analyst Gaah described the situation as market capitulation.
$4.5 Billion in Realized Loss on Bitcoin
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 26, 2026
“Highest amount of realized losses in three years. The last time this occurred in Bitcoin, the price was trading at $28,000 after a brief correction period that lasted about a year.” – By @gaah_im pic.twitter.com/OJ7bbL3RSC
The expert noted that mass loss realization historically precedes the formation of a local bottom. The last time similar metrics were observed, Bitcoin was priced at $28,000 following a prolonged year-long correction.
Changpeng Zhao: Supercycle Instead of Four-Year Model
Despite the price drop at the beginning of the year, Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) suggested that a supercycle for digital gold could begin within the next 12 months. In an interview with CNBC, he speculated that traditional market models may become outdated.
“Bitcoin usually follows four-year cycles: historically, every four years we see a new peak followed by a decline. But this year, given the pro-crypto stance of the U.S. and other countries, we are likely to break this pattern,” he stated.
Zhao does not plan to return to managing the exchange, despite being pardoned by Donald Trump.
The platform's founder acknowledged that the president's order lifts the ban on his involvement with the company. However, CZ sees no reason to return to a leadership position.
“I don’t need it, and I don’t particularly want to. Leaving Binance after seven years was a good way to close that chapter. At that moment, it was painful, and I didn’t like it. But then you get used to it. I believe we should give space for other strong leaders to grow,” he noted.
Zhao emphasized that Binance is thriving under the leadership of co-CEOs Richard Teng and Yi He. Key metrics are on the rise: the user base has surpassed 300 million, and annual trading volume reached $34 trillion.
CZ referred to himself as a “passive shareholder.” He avoids the role of a “backseat driver,” preferring to offer advice publicly through X when necessary.
Institutions Buy the Dip
The sentiments of major players contrast sharply with the panic selling seen in the retail market. According to a report from Charting Crypto Q1 2026 by Coinbase, 71% of institutional investors consider Bitcoin “undervalued” in the range of $85,000 to $95,000.
A survey conducted in December-January among 75 professional managers and 73 large private investors revealed:
- 80% of institutions are willing to hold or increase their positions during a 10% dip;
- 60% of respondents increased their allocation to digital assets after the October ATH;
- 54% believe the market is in an accumulation phase, presenting entry opportunities.
Only 4% of surveyed professionals deemed the current price of digital gold to be overvalued.
Macroeconomic Context
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $87,065, which is 30% below its all-time high of $126,080 (according to CoinGecko). Since the major crash on October 10, which led to $19 billion in liquidations, the market has entered a sideways trend with a downward bias.
Coinbase analysts linked this to geopolitical factors: escalating tensions in the Middle East and tariff threats from the Trump administration.
Amid uncertainty, traditional safe-haven assets have surged:
- gold hit a historic high above $5,000;
- the market value of silver has doubled since October;
- the S&P 500 showed moderate growth of 3%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is demonstrating resilience: real GDP grew by over 5% in the fourth quarter, and inflation in December was 2.7%.
Coinbase expects the Fed to cut rates twice in 2026. This could act as a catalyst for growth in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Notably, in January, Bitwise analysts declared that the fourth quarter of 2025 marked the end of the bear phase.