Summary
- On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $84,000, showing a 0.9% increase for the day, while Bitcoin ETFs experienced eight consecutive days of inflows totaling approximately $3 billion.
- The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has reached its highest point since 2007, and Brent crude oil prices have dipped from Monday's highs.
- Futures markets now estimate a 70.3% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, an increase from 55.4% just a week prior.
Bitcoin was priced at about $84,000 on Tuesday, reflecting a 0.9% rise over the past 24 hours but a 2% decline for the week, according to CoinGecko data. The cryptocurrency has remained in this price range for two weeks as other market factors exert pressure.
This external pressure is primarily due to rising Treasury yields, which are hovering near multi-year highs largely due to oil prices. The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 5.274% on Monday, its highest since June 2007, while the 30-year yield hit 5.583%, a level not seen since 2002. Both yields eased slightly on Tuesday, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, coinciding with a drop in crude oil prices. Brent crude surged above $100 per barrel on Monday after former President Donald Trump dismissed Iran's seven-day proposal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, bolstering the dollar. Subsequently, Brent prices fell below $104, down roughly 1.7% for the day after reaching over $108 on Monday, as U.S. and Iranian officials continued indirect discussions through Qatar, and Saudi Arabia restored about half of its East-West pipeline flows, an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices have also dropped to a seven-week low.
BitcoinBTC · USD$83,741−3.09%24H7D1M1YYTDSep 22Sep 24Sep 26Sep 27Sep 29$87.2k$85.7k$84.2k$82.7k24h HighHigh$84,48624h LowLow$82,796VolVol$1.2BMarket projectionsOdds by MyriadToday$82,000 to $84,000$82k–$84k81% chanceThis weekBelow $84,000Below $84k54% chanceThis month$82,000 to $84,000$82k–$84k81% chance→Buy Bitcoin with USDTPowered by Jupiter$50$100$500BuyPrice data by CoinGeckoCoinGeckoMore Bitcoin news and projections →According to Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, "The increase in crude oil prices is limiting the appeal of non-yielding assets, causing Bitcoin's upward momentum to temporarily stall." He anticipates that Bitcoin may find it challenging to gain momentum as long as energy risks persist, although he views the current price action as a consolidation phase within a short-term uptrend.
Thahbib Rahman, a research analyst at Block Scholes, echoed this sentiment, noting that Bitcoin has maintained its position between $82,000 and $84,000 for over a week and a half, despite the broader macroeconomic challenges and the Senate's inability to advance the Clarity Act. He attributed this stability to strong institutional demand.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded inflows for eight consecutive sessions, with data from Farside Investors indicating that these inflows total approximately $3 billion. On Monday, there was a modest inflow of $31.07 million, according to SoSoValue, which included $54.84 million into BlackRock's IBIT and $10.32 million into Grayscale's mini trust, offsetting outflows of $23.19 million from GBTC and $10.90 million from Fidelity's FBTC. The total assets in these funds now amount to $107.82 billion, representing 6.42% of Bitcoin's overall market cap.
Myriad: Predict when Bitcoin will achieve a new all-time high.Options traders are exercising caution. Rahman noted that the 25-delta put-call skew for tenors of seven to 30 days is nearing neutral, indicating that traders are balancing between buying downside protection and positioning for a potential rally.
Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy has continued its purchasing activity, recently announcing the acquisition of 1,665 BTC for around $142.7 million between September 21 and 27, raising its total holdings to 847,666 BTC, surpassing its previous record of 847,363 BTC from June.
This week's U.S. economic data will play a crucial role in shaping expectations surrounding the Fed's decisions. The core PCE for August is set to be released on Wednesday, alongside the third estimate of second-quarter GDP. This measure recorded a year-on-year rate of 3.3% in July, with the Fed recently adjusting its 2026 projection to 3.4% during this month's meeting. The jobs report for September, due on Friday, is expected to show an increase of around 90,000 jobs, down from August's 162,000, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.1%. However, Barclays' chief U.S. economist Marc Giannoni suggested that the actual figure for September might be closer to 50,000. The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for October 27 and 28, following its first rate increase since 2023. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, futures markets currently estimate a 70.3% chance of another quarter-point hike, up from 55.4% a week ago and 17.7% a month prior. Traders on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, price the same outcome at 69%, also reflecting an increase over the past week.