On April 2, the leading cryptocurrency dipped below $67,000 following a vague statement from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the conflict in the Middle East.
15-minute BTC/USDT chart from Binance. Source: TradingView.
In a televised address the day before, Trump stated that the war with Iran is "close to ending." However, during the same speech, he promised to deliver an "extremely strong" blow to the adversary within three to four weeks, which would send the country "back to the Stone Age."
Following this announcement, all markets, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, gold, and cryptocurrencies, began to decline. Only oil saw an increase.
At one point, Bitcoin fell to $65,700.
The situation stabilized by Thursday evening when reports emerged about Iran and Oman developing a protocol to monitor traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
"These requirements will not impose restrictions but are intended to facilitate and ensure safe passage and provide better services to vessels navigating this route," said Iran's Deputy Minister of Justice and International Affairs, Kazem Garibabadi.
This news "revitalized" investors, allowing for a partial recovery from the recent decline. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $66,800, having lost 3% over the past day.
Similar to 2022
An analyst using the pseudonym Ali noted that since the peak of October 2025 at $126,000, Bitcoin has corrected by 52%.
Following the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin $BTC has already seen a 52% correction. On February 27, 2026, we saw the 3-day SMA cross once again. As of today, we are exactly 30 days into this signal.
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) April 1, 2026
If history "rhymes," we are likely entering the Final Accumulation Window of this… https://t.co/NB4vtVMaFx pic.twitter.com/gMn1MxjzKK
According to his observations, on February 27, 2026, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages crossed on Bitcoin's three-day chart. April 1 marked exactly 30 days since this signal was triggered.
"If the trend repeats, we are likely to enter the final accumulation window of this cycle within the next three to six days," Ali believes.
This situation could lead to another significant drop of 50% from current levels, potentially down to $30,000.
Another analyst, Ardi, pointed out the high concentration of long positions in Bitcoin, with liquidation occurring around $63,000. The price is now "extremely" close to this zone.
Now that is a heavy long-liquidation node waiting to get taken on $BTC.
— Ardi (@ArdiNSC) April 2, 2026
Look how close it is to price. Yes, it has been acting as support, but the problem is that the more times support gets used, the weaker it usually becomes.
At some point, the market stops bouncing from it… pic.twitter.com/UDhe2eJDh9
"Yes, this level is acting as support, but the issue is that the more often support is tested, the weaker it becomes. Eventually, the market stops bouncing and starts breaking through. If this liquidity cluster collapses, I wouldn't expect a slow decline. I would anticipate a sharp liquidation," he added.
As noted by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., the structure of the fear and greed index shows similarities to 2022, recording equally low values around 10-15%. Meanwhile, the 365-day moving average of the index "is still too high for a complete bear market reset."
Source: X.
Alphractal Director Zhao Vedson pointed out that Bitcoin transaction fees have also dropped to 2022 lows, marking one of the lowest levels in the past six years.
Source: X.
He noted that historically weak on-chain demand often precedes periods of increased volatility.
"This is a moment of extremely dull market dynamics. Let's just break out of this range [$60,000-70,000], and Bitcoin will become much more interesting again," concluded MN Trading founder Michael van de Poppe.
It is worth noting that large holders have shifted from accumulating the leading cryptocurrency to distributing it, a trend that CryptoQuant believes is long-term.