The cryptocurrency market is displaying a cautious optimism as Bitcoin maintains its position above $64,000, up 0.75% ahead of the Federal Reserve's impending interest rate decision.
Inflation at 4.1% Puts Rate Increase on the Table Even as Oil Prices Drop
By Oliver Knight, Omkar Godbole | Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 29, 2026, 10:34 a.m. 3 min read
Bitcoin has risen 0.75% to $64,328 following a tumultuous two-day period, as traders await a potential rate hike from the Federal Reserve, which could mark the first increase in three years. The mood in traditional markets reflects a strategy of cautious hedging rather than strong conviction, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures slightly positive, while gold remains above $4,000 and silver has increased by 1.40%.
Prior to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision scheduled for later today, the crypto market appears mixed. The CoinDesk 20 Index has seen a 0.41% rise since midnight UTC, with equal numbers of assets moving up and down.
Bitcoin BTC$64,364.00, the dominant cryptocurrency, has regained some of its losses from Tuesday after experiencing a volatile 48-hour period, which saw it reach a high of $66,700 before plummeting to $62,400 amid a downturn in South Korean stocks.
With inflation currently at 4.1%, there is a strong case for the Federal Reserve to consider raising the federal funds target rate for the first time in three years. However, a recent easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran has contributed to a decrease in oil prices, which may slightly lower the chances of a rate increase.
Meanwhile, Ether (ETH) has dipped 0.13% today. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 show positive movement, while gold remains stable above $4,000 and silver's increase indicates that markets are leaning toward hedging rather than making definitive commitments ahead of the announcement.
Derivatives Positioning
- Balanced Positioning Preceding Fed Meeting: The long-short volume ratio in crypto trading is nearly even as traders prepare for the Fed's meeting. Open interest (OI) has remained stable around $113 billion in the past 24 hours, with trading volume rising by 10% to $205 billion, suggesting steady positioning but with slightly increased activity.
- Spot Price Gains Yet to Boost Futures Participation: Although both BTC and ETH have seen spot price increases of over 1% in the last 24 hours, this has not yet led to greater involvement in futures trading. BTC's OI stays steady at approximately 750,000 BTC, while ETH's OI has dropped for four consecutive days to 14.14 million ETH.
- UNI Stands Out: Most of the top-20 tokens have either seen stable or declining OI over the past 24 hours. UNI is a notable exception, with OI rising slightly to 68.53 million tokens, its highest since July 13, following BlackRock's announcement to offer its tokenized Treasury fund on the decentralized exchange.
- Mixed Signals from OI-Adjusted CVD: The OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) presents a mixed outlook. It shows positive trends for tokens like ADA, TRX, XRP, CC, UNI, and ETH, indicating an increasing number of traders are opting for market orders rather than passive limit orders. Conversely, other coins demonstrate the opposite trend.
- Low Implied Volatility: Bitcoin and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes are hovering near recent lows, suggesting that traders do not foresee immediate fluctuations. This contrasts with the prevailing concern among analysts, as traders are still assigning a 35% probability to a Fed rate hike today. Typically, markets reach a consensus on such decisions prior to the announcements.
- Puts Dominate BTC Options Volume: In the options market on Deribit, put options at strikes of $62,000, $60,000, and $54,000 are leading the volume rankings. These options provide protection against declines in the underlying asset's price. In contrast, call options are more prominent in ETH's case.
Token Performance
- XRP topped altcoin gains on Wednesday, increasing by 1.72% to $1.086, with ADA$0.1633 rising by 1.48%. Both cryptocurrencies are continuing to recover from their lows in July as the larger market stabilizes.
- Jupiter (JUP) was the standout performer among DeFi tokens, surging 5.79% as trading volume increased, marking its third rise in the last four days.
- FET continued its downward trend, falling 4.60% since midnight and 6.78% over the last 24 hours. The AI token is now down nearly 14% for the week as the sector's early July momentum fades.
- PUMP$0.001880 dropped 5.14%, reversing most of last week's speculative gains as retail enthusiasm wanes.
- Monero (XMR) defied the trend with a 1.82% gain to $347, extending a strong performance from the privacy coin sector that has largely gone unnoticed amid the broader market fluctuations.
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Crypto Flows, Share and the Selective Rotation
Crypto Flows, Share and the Selective Rotation
Markets have shifted since June, but Binance has maintained its share (~55% user funds, ~24% spot) and saw net inflows in early July while the broader market experienced outflows.