On Tuesday, Bitcoin was priced around $62,600, reflecting a 0.3% decline over the past 24 hours and remaining stable for the week, according to data from CoinDesk. Although the market appears steady, underlying macroeconomic factors have shifted.
President Trump has reimposed the U.S. blockade on Iranian vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz and has called for a 20% fee on other cargo in the area, reigniting a conflict that seemed resolved by a peace agreement in June.
The price of Brent crude oil surged by as much as 2.8%, reaching approximately $85 per barrel, marking its second consecutive day of increases, as traders began to speculate more on a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
This situation poses challenges for the cryptocurrency market. Rising oil prices contribute to inflationary pressures, which have kept the Fed in a hawkish stance since June, and the recent alleviation of these pressures was a key factor in Bitcoin's recovery from its late-June lows near $58,000. As the peace trade unravels, expectations for rate hikes are rising again.
Over the past month, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $59,000 and $66,000, with mixed performances among major cryptocurrencies. Ether has remained close to $1,783 and has gained over the week, while Solana, XRP, and Hyperliquid have each fallen by 5% or more in the last seven days.
The upcoming inflation report for June will be a critical indicator. A lower-than-expected figure could alleviate the rate-hike concerns raised by the developments in Iran. Conversely, a higher inflation reading, particularly with rising oil prices, would reinforce a hawkish outlook just two weeks prior to the Fed's meetings on July 28 and 29.