A potential split in Bitcoin this weekend could lead to buyers executing replay attacks on the main chain, making inaction the safest option until chains are distinguished.
By Shaurya Malwa|Edited by Stephen Alpher30 min ago3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Bitcoin holders face risks of losing actual BTC if they engage with the BIP-110 fork. (Shutterstock)SummaryShow- A proposed Bitcoin fork related to the contentious BIP-110 might generate duplicate balances on two chains, enticing holders to sell the new coins, perceived as easy profits.
- Since both chains would initially validate the same transactions, selling forked coins risks initiating a replay attack that could deplete the seller's actual bitcoin on the primary chain.
- Developers caution that, without integrated replay protection until at least early September, the safest option for laypeople is to refrain from moving coins during this potential fork.
Bitcoin holders may risk losing their actual BTC by attempting to sell coins from a fork that could end up being worthless.
The scenario unfolds as Bitcoin is poised to split into two chains within the coming days. If this occurs, every Bitcoin holder will effectively possess the same balance on both chains. A buyer might then offer to purchase the new coins at an appealing price, creating the illusion of free money and prompting holders to consider selling.
However, accepting such an offer could allow the buyer to also claim the seller's bitcoin. This is because both chains initially process identical transactions—thus, a transaction that transfers the forked coins can simultaneously be executed on Bitcoin. The buyer would receive the same amount of actual BTC at the same address.
This phenomenon is known as a replay attack, and the most prudent action for those unfamiliar with separating the two balances is to refrain from any transactions.
How selling a forked coin can result in the loss of actual bitcoin for holders. (Shaurya Malwa/CoinDesk)A replay attack does not deplete the wallet entirely; only the coins designated for sale are transferred, and they leave as actual bitcoin instead of the forked version, with transaction fees incurred on both chains.
Kevin Loaec, a Bitcoin developer who highlighted the danger on X recently, mentioned that larger holders might be the primary targets. He emphasized that doing nothing remains the safest choice, as coins that remain stationary cannot be replayed due to the absence of a signed transaction to duplicate.
⚠️IMPORTANT⚠️In the next couple of days, a new shitcoin will fork off Bitcoin. It is a big security risk for people who just believe they will get an "airdrop" and want to sell it, to get more bitcoin.
— Kevin Loaec 🧙♂️🐟 (@KLoaec) August 6, 2026
I will write more about it, but here is the TLDR: 👇
Understanding the BIP-110 Mechanism
The underlying cause of this situation is the BIP-110 proposal, which aims to exclude non-payment data like images and text from Bitcoin transactions for a year.
Implementing changes to Bitcoin's protocol necessitates miner consensus, which is reflected through the marking of blocks they produce. BIP-110 requires 1,109 marked blocks out of a total of 2,016, equating to 55%. (A block consists of a group of transactions miners add to the ledger approximately every ten minutes.)
While this method is not viable, the proposal includes an alternative. Starting from block 961,632, anticipated this weekend, computers running BIP-110 software will reject any block lacking the requisite mark, regardless of miner agreement.
At present, nearly all mined blocks do not carry this mark. Consequently, BIP-110-compatible computers will begin rejecting the chain predominantly supported by Bitcoin's mining power.
If some miners persist in constructing a BIP-110-compatible chain while others continue mining Bitcoin as usual, two competing versions of transaction history could emerge, although it will halt if no one continues to extend the minority chain.
This disparity creates a situation where a split is possible, but not guaranteed. Current miner signaling is around 2.6%, according to trackers, but this signaling does not equate to mining power; such low signaling means that a minority chain could generate blocks very slowly or cease altogether.
Thus, if a split occurs, every Bitcoin holder will initially have the same balance on both chains. The second copy may hold little or no value, and someone could still express interest in purchasing it.
Separating the two balances is initially complicated because the fork lacks automatic replay protection. The actual restrictions from BIP-110 on transaction data will not activate until block 965,664, which is expected around early September.
Until then, holders must intentionally create coins that exist solely on one branch before they can safely engage in transactions.
Timing will depend on the rate at which blocks are discovered, meaning the mandatory-signaling window could shift by a day earlier or later than current estimates.
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