Bitcoin's inability to break past $83,000 is increasingly seen as a bearish signal, despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures achieving gains and nearing record levels.
By Oliver Knight, Saksham Diwan|Edited by Sheldon Reback May 29, 2026, 10:29 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on Bitcoin price (CoinDesk Data)Key Points:
- Bitcoin's failure to surpass $83,000 has intensified a trend of lower highs that has been in place since October.
- Mixed signals are emerging from derivatives markets: Implied volatility has decreased to its lowest level since September, indicating traders anticipate stability in the short term, while one-week put-call skew has increased, suggesting a rise in demand for downside protection.
- Stellar (XLM) was the top performer, soaring 25% in just 24 hours after DTCC revealed plans to integrate its tokenized securities platform with the network. Conversely, Bitcoin Cash fell by 7.2%, now down 20% for the week.
As of recent data, Bitcoin BTC$73,571.63 has seen a slight increase of 0.4% since midnight UTC on Friday, recovering just 0.07% after hitting its lowest point since early April the previous day.
The decline on Thursday extended a three-week trend following the unsuccessful attempt to breach the $83,000 mark. This rejection may have contributed to a series of lower highs that have characterized a bear market since October.
Ether (ETH) mirrored Bitcoin's movements, dropping to $1,965 on Thursday before bouncing back above $2,000.
U.S. equities continued to outperform cryptocurrencies on Friday, with both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures rising by 0.15% as they approached new record highs.
There is no definitive reason for the crypto market's struggles compared to sectors with which it has typically shown correlation. However, this divergence since October coincides with a significant leverage reduction that the market has not fully recovered from.
Derivatives Analysis
- Current open interest for BTC stands at $20.05 billion, up from $19.7 billion a week prior, with a slight increase in speculative positioning.
- Funding rates remain positive across various platforms, staying under 10% annualized, except for Deribit, where they have surged to 44%.
- The three-month annualized basis is approaching 3%, led by Deribit, which has risen from 2.2% last week, indicating a slight improvement in institutional risk appetite.
- Options positioning is sending mixed signals: one-week 25-delta skew has increased to 12.85% from 12.4%, reflecting a slight uptick in demand for downside protection.
- Front-end implied volatility (DVOL) has dropped to approximately 36, the lowest level since September, while the slope of the 1 month–6 month term structure remains at -6%, indicating a contango market. This suggests traders are expecting short-term stability amid longer-term uncertainty.
- According to Coinglass data, there were $224 million in liquidations over a 24-hour period, with a 54-46 split between longs and shorts. BTC ($46 million) and ETH ($43 million) were the primary contributors to these liquidations. The Binance liquidation heatmap highlights $72,280 as a critical liquidation level to watch in case of further price declines.
Token Performance
- Stellar (XLM) emerged as the leading altcoin on Friday, increasing by 25% over the past 24 hours and 4.5% since midnight UTC, following the announcement that The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) plans to link its tokenized securities platform to the network.
- Other altcoins such as ALGO, INJ, HBAR, and HYPE also experienced double-digit gains over the last 24 hours, showing strength in the altcoin market despite the major cryptocurrencies' downturn.
- In contrast, Bitcoin Cash BCH$300.30 continued its recent poor performance, losing 7.2% of its value in the past 24 hours and down 20% for the week.
- DeFi tokens have also seen declines, with ENA, JUP, and UNI dropping as much as 18% over the last week.
- CoinMarketCap's "Altcoin Season" indicator reflected this weakness on Friday, declining to 34/100 from 37/100.
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