Currently, approximately 10.83 million BTC are being held at a loss, indicating that their owners purchased them at prices higher than today's market value, while 9.22 million BTC remain in profit, as reported by Glassnode. This marks the first instance in the current cycle where loss-holding supply has outnumbered profitable supply, highlighting the significant downturn following Bitcoin's peak of $109,000 in January.
Historically, such shifts have occurred during times of significant financial strain and capitulation among newer investors. These events often signal a transition where coins move from less committed holders to more dedicated ones, as only those with strong conviction tend to endure losses rather than sell off. This recent decline in profitability has coincided with an increase in long-term holder accumulation and growing balances among various wallet sizes.
As of Thursday, Bitcoin was priced at $61,361, reflecting a 0.7% increase for the day and a 2.5% rise over the week, yet still sits about 51% below its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October 2025. Ether saw a rise of 4.2%, reaching $1,702, while Solana led the major cryptocurrencies with an 18.6% increase over the week, trading at $80.44, with trading volumes exceeding $3.6 billion.
The implications of the supply crossover on future price movements are uncertain. In previous cycles, such trends in 2018-19 and 2022 were followed by extended periods of price stabilization before eventual recovery. The market's future direction will depend on subsequent developments; a return of ETF flows and a reduction in macroeconomic pressures are necessary for this accumulation trend to translate into price improvements.
CORRECT (07:45 UTC): Updates the all-time high mentioned in the third paragraph.