Bitcoin's on-chain metrics show limited bullish momentum despite recent price movements amid geopolitical tensions.
Bitcoin has recently faced a "stress test" amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite this, on-chain metrics from Glassnode indicate that the cryptocurrency may not be ready for a mid-term breakout.
An accumulation cluster is forming between $62,000 and $72,000, but its strength is relatively weak compared to previous phases that led to sustained price increases. While there is growing conviction among investors, the groundwork for a significant price surge is still lacking.
— glassnode (@glassnode) March 13, 2026
Currently, the share of short-term holders in profit has dipped below 50%, suggesting that most recent buyers are at a loss. Analysts warn that until this metric recovers above the 50% threshold, demand and risk appetite will remain low.
A significant indicator of bear markets is when the short-term holder supply in profit falls below 50%. This situation signals that most recent buyers are underwater, leading to suppressed demand until conditions improve.
— glassnode (@glassnode) March 13, 2026
Market Risks and Resistance Levels
CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom has raised concerns about Bitcoin holders who have been invested for six months to a year. Their average entry price is around $100,000, which is significantly higher than current levels, creating a barrier to growth as they face unrealized losses. Until these investors' cost basis trends downward, their presence may hinder Bitcoin's upward momentum.
Furthermore, Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is close to 1.2, indicating that the asset has not yet found a bottom. Historically, true lows are marked by a drop below one, suggesting that the market has not yet experienced maximum pain.
A stable bottom is typically formed when over 20% of coins have been inactive for more than two years, but currently, this figure is only about 15%. As Mom noted, the lack of strong support from long-term holders indicates a fragile market bottom.
The structural support from long-term holders remains weak, highlighting the market's vulnerability until this group regains dominance.
Potential Market Scenarios
Mom outlines two possible scenarios for Bitcoin's future. The first is a "black swan" event, where a sharp decline triggers forced liquidations, potentially leading to a quick but painful formation of a solid market bottom within one to two months. The second scenario, referred to as the "great boredom," would see Bitcoin trading in the $60,000-$80,000 range as institutional investors hold their positions. In this case, recovery could be delayed until late 2026 or early 2027.
For the immediate future, volatility in the $60,000-$70,000 range is anticipated. As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $72,300, having increased by 2.7% in the last 24 hours, with traders betting on a rise to $80,000 by early summer.
