The first cryptocurrency underwent a "stress test" amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, on-chain metrics indicate a lack of bullish momentum for a mid-term breakout, according to Glassnode.
An accumulation cluster is forming in the $62k–$72k range. However, its intensity is modest relative to prior phases that preceded sustained expansions.
— glassnode (@glassnode) March 13, 2026
Conviction is building, but the foundation for a mid-term breakout remains thin so far.
📉 https://t.co/ztF5eAyola https://t.co/QKryhvZaho pic.twitter.com/g3XhYKPLst
Analysts noted accumulation in the $62,000-$72,000 range. However, the intensity of buying is lower than in previous phases that historically preceded sustained rallies.
A preliminary condition for a stable recovery is an increase in the share of short-term holders in profit. This metric has fallen below 50%, indicating that most recent buyers are currently at a loss.
A hallmark of bear markets: STH Supply in Profit falling below 50%, meaning the majority of recent buyers are underwater.
— glassnode (@glassnode) March 13, 2026
Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%.
Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery.
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Analysts emphasized that demand and risk appetite will remain "suppressed" until the value returns above 50%.
Hidden Risks and Resistance
CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom highlighted a hidden threat to the market. She pointed out that the behavior of investors holding Bitcoin for six months to a year is currently a major concern.
Is BTC Bottom In? Not Quite.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 13, 2026
“We are at a 'Value Bottom' for long-term DCA, but a 'Structural Bottom' has yet to form. Expect volatility between $60k–$70k.” – By @chich1217 pic.twitter.com/eBwJbuSUkP
Their average entry price is concentrated around $100,000—significantly above current levels. These market participants are currently facing unrealized losses. As long as their cost curves trend upward, they pose significant resistance to growth, the analyst explained.
Digital gold has also not yet reached a bottom, as indicated by MVRV values near 1.2. Historically, this is an attractive zone for averaging in by "smart money." However, "true" cycle lows are typically accompanied by a drop in the ratio below one. The market has yet to reach "maximum pain."
A stable bottom forms when the share of coins that have been inactive for over two years exceeds 20% in the realized capitalization metric. Currently, it barely reaches 15%.
“Structural support from this group remains weak. This indicates the fragility of the market bottom until long-term holders regain their dominance,” Sunny Mom explained.
Two Scenarios
The analyst sees two potential paths for forming the cycle's bottom. The first is a "black swan": a sharp crash triggers a cascade of forced liquidations, washing fresh capital that entered at the peaks out of the market. Sunny Mom described this as a quick and painful route to a "solid" bottom, which could take one or two months.
The second scenario is the "great boredom." Institutional investors will continue to hold their positions, while Bitcoin remains stuck in the $60,000-$80,000 range. During this time, "new money" will age into long-term holders. Under these conditions, recovery could be delayed until late 2026 or even early 2027.
In the near term, the expert expects volatility in the $60,000-$70,000 corridor.
At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading around $72,300, having risen 2.7% in the last 24 hours.
Traders in options have bet on Bitcoin rising to $80,000 by early summer.