For Bitcoin to maintain its upward trajectory, it must overcome a resistance zone between $83,000 and $86,000, where long-term holders (LTH) have amassed coins and where spot ETF breakeven levels are situated. This assessment comes from analysts at Glassnode.

Bitcoin is still stuck beneath the edge of a thick resistance band.

Moving above this level would indicate a shift in long-term market structure.

A return lower would result in significant pain for late longs. https://t.co/9fBfJzz1av

— glassnode (@glassnode) September 9, 2026

In this range, LTH have acquired approximately 1.07 million BTC, primarily at a price around $85,000. This volume has remained largely unchanged over the past month.

A price return to this range would allow holders to sell their coins without incurring losses, making it a potential source of selling pressure, according to analysts.

The breakeven levels for American exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also tied to these prices, with their assets' breakeven point around $86,000. A recent rebound has reduced their overall unrealized losses from $18 billion in February to $3.9 billion, although it has not completely offset the losses yet.

Unrealized gains and losses of Bitcoin in American spot ETFs amid BTC price changes. Source: Glassnode.

However, proximity to the purchase price does not guarantee that holders will start selling en masse. Glassnode noted that long-term investors are currently less active in realizing profits, with their share of total realized gains dropping from 88% at the August peak to 47%.

Dynamics of the Sell-Side Risk Ratio indicator and Bitcoin's price. Source: Glassnode.

If buyers manage to push Bitcoin's price higher, short liquidations could provide additional support.

Between $82,000 and $86,000, there are levels where short positions may be forcibly closed, with the estimated volume of these positions rising by 21% since August 19. Liquidating these shorts would require buying back and could accelerate the price increase.

Are There Enough New Buyers in the Market?

Currently, there is no solid buying advantage in the spot market, according to analyst Darkfost from CryptoQuant. Unlike the futures market, where buyers dominate, the 90-day average CVD remains neutral.

🗞️ Bitcoin's rebound looks strong, but liquidity tells a different story.

Despite a roughly 45% rebound from its recent low, Bitcoin's market is still feeling the effects of low liquidity.

This shows up notably in spot demand, which remains relatively weak, with the Cumulative… pic.twitter.com/x1SdmGgpmR

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) September 9, 2026

The expert also pointed out that stablecoin reserves on Binance peaked above $50 billion but have since dropped by nearly $7 billion. Darkfost interprets this trend as another indicator of liquidity shortage.

In the last month, the situation has begun to shift, with reserves increasing by $1.6 billion. However, this replenishment has not yet compensated for the outflow over the past three months, leaving the 90-day change at a negative -1.6%. At its worst, this figure had reached -17% during the correction phase.

According to Darkfost, while the inflow of funds has resumed, it is still too slow to confidently support further price increases.

Additional purchases were not provided by American spot Bitcoin ETFs either, with outflows of $46.6 million on September 8 and another $120.2 million on September 9. In two sessions, these funds lost a total of $166.8 million.

Daily dynamics of outflows and inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue.

What Could Support Growth and What Threatens It?

Despite the weak replenishment of reserves, Darkfost noted an improvement in the technical picture. He observed that the daily RSI reached 67, and the exponential moving averages for seven and 21 days crossed above the 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025.

Darkfost linked further liquidity restoration to overcoming the nearest price barrier.

“A confident breakout above $80,000 should be the key to a full and sustainable return of liquidity,” wrote Darkfost.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading below this mark, around $77,700, having decreased by 1.4% in the last 24 hours.

Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.

Contributor GugaOnChain from CryptoQuant highlighted the risks of a potential reversal. According to him, futures buyers may not wait for support from the spot market.

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 10, 2026

The specialist noted the negative premium on Coinbase, indicating weak demand in the U.S., along with a high proportion of large transfers to exchanges.

He believes that large holders are using the recovery to sell their coins while other traders are betting on continued growth. If the price reverses downward, closing leveraged long positions could exacerbate the decline.

It is worth noting that on September 7, Darkfost warned of the risk of new liquidations in the first cryptocurrency market.