Markets Bitcoin Futures Yield Plummets: Now Lower Than Treasury Notes
The yield from bitcoin futures has significantly decreased, trailing behind two-year U.S. Treasuries since February, indicating a reduction in arbitrage opportunities and a market in maturation.
By Omkar Godbole | Edited by Sheldon Reback Aug 3, 2026, 10:13 a.m. 2 min read
BTC futures basis yields less than Treasury notes. (Glassnode)- Previously yielding over 20% during the 2021 bull market, bitcoin futures now yield less than short-term U.S. Treasuries since February.
- The decline in carry returns and an ongoing crypto bear market have led to a marked drop in bitcoin futures trading volumes.
Once a lucrative option for carry traders, bitcoin futures have now consistently underperformed compared to standard U.S. Treasuries every month since February.
During the 2021 bull market, carry trades yielded 20% or more across various crypto exchanges, involving shorting bitcoin futures while purchasing a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Currently, these trades yield only 3%, in contrast to the average yield of 3.8% from two-year Treasuries.
Traders have utilized futures contracts—agreements to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a specific date—to profit from the differences between futures and spot prices, known as basis. This basis has been consistently lower than that of the two-year Treasury note for over five months, as reported by data provider Glassnode.
According to Glassnode, "The three-month futures basis has been less than a two-year Treasury since February. This is only the second time on record that such a stretch has occurred, the first being from August 2022 to January 2023, which ended at the cycle low."
For 157 days, the three-month basis has yielded less than the two-year Treasury note, as indicated in Glassnode's latest chart.
When the carry trade offers lower returns than short-term Treasuries, traders and allocators lose motivation to invest in futures, as a dollar in the carry trade now earns less than if it were invested in government securities.
This trend partly accounts for the decrease in bitcoin futures activity, with July trading volume dropping to slightly over $880 million, down from February’s peak of $1.47 trillion, as reported by Coinglass. This decline also reflects the broader downturn in the crypto market.
The shrinking basis is indicative of increased liquidity and market development. The basis trade profits from price discrepancies between interconnected markets; thus, a decline in yield suggests that these inefficiencies are diminishing, leading to tighter bid-ask spreads, simpler hedging, and fewer significant arbitrage opportunities.
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