Analysts Diverge on Bitcoin Projections Following Fed Meeting
Analysts present conflicting views on Bitcoin's future following the Fed's rate hike, with some seeing a bullish trend while others signal bearish movements.
Mercation Admin
September 17, 2026 2 min read
After the recent interest rate hike in the United States, some indicators suggest a decline in Bitcoin demand. However, an analyst known as Crypto Dan argues that a return to a bear market is becoming increasingly unlikely.
A Return to a Bear Cycle Is Becoming Increasingly Unlikely
“Looking at previous market cycles, declines of this scale have represented more than just short-term rebounds. They have shown enough momentum to bring bearish phases to an end.” – By @DanCoinInvestorpic.twitter.com/QbbkNNVx0p
According to his analysis, the proportion of unprofitable UTXOs has significantly decreased. A similar trend was observed during the conclusion of past bear phases.
“Such a movement has enough strength to transition the market from a bearish cycle to a bullish one,” Crypto Dan added.
He cautioned that, in the short term, negative factors like the rate increase and the failure of the CLARITY Act may pressure market sentiment, but are unlikely to drastically alter the market's trajectory.
In contrast, analyst Darkfost noted a bearish signal after the Fed meeting, highlighting a shift in the Bull Score Index to a bearish mode.
Source: X/Darkfost.
The Bull Score Index is a technical indicator that assesses the health of a bull market and the strength of buyers. It takes into account spot trading volumes, futures trading activity, coin movements on exchanges, and network activity.
Over the week, the index dropped from 80 to 30. The expert also pointed out that demand for Bitcoin is not growing, and profits for short-term holders are diminishing.
“Currently, the market is reacting by demanding an even higher risk premium. Some positions may be closed due to a lack of short-term investment prospects,” Darkfost emphasized.
Additional Observations
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has fallen below the lower boundary of a multi-week range and the True Market Mean.
“For momentum, breaking through this barrier is essential, and then we’ll start moving towards the highs,” he stated.
Investor sentiment is also reflected in the dynamics of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which experienced outflows of $450 million and $295 million on September 15 and 16, respectively.
Source: SoSoValue.
“The next several trading sessions will determine whether these outflows were an isolated risk reduction or the beginning of a broader trend shift,” analysts at Coinbase Markets warned.
It is worth noting that on September 14, CryptoQuant observed a signal indicating the end of Bitcoin's bear phase.
