On May 18, the price of Bitcoin dropped to around $76,580, marking its lowest point since May 1. Following Bitcoin's decline, altcoin prices also fell.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.
The Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 27 points.
Analysts have linked the drop to rising U.S. Treasury yields, a strengthening dollar, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened military action against Iran if peace negotiations stall. In this context, Brent crude oil prices rose to $111, while WTI reached $107.7.
Source: Trading Economics.
Investors are concerned that high oil prices could prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten its policy. According to BTSE's Chief Operating Officer Jeff May, the market is pricing in the risk of interest rate hikes to combat inflation.
This uncertainty has impacted crypto ETFs: from May 13 to May 17, $1 billion was withdrawn from these instruments, ending a six-week streak of inflows.
Presto Research analyst Min Jun noted that institutional investors are reducing their positions in risk assets while awaiting macroeconomic data. The Bitrue Research Institute referred to the current downturn as a "healthy correction," identifying a support level at $74,000.
The sharp movement triggered mass liquidations. In just 15 minutes at the start of the Asian session, nearly $500 million in long positions were liquidated, with the total amount of forced closures exceeding $606 million.
Source: CoinGlass.
BTC Markets analyst Rachel Lucas described Bitcoin's correction as a "macroeconomic story." She stated that risk appetite has decreased, leading to rising oil prices and bond yields while the stock market has fallen.
On the Deribit exchange, demand for put options with a strike price of $77,500 has increased. Sean McNulty from FalconX added that the drop intensified the triggering of stop-loss orders set by investors last week.
Retail Investors
Bitcoin inflows from small players to Binance have reached record lows, according to an analyst using the pseudonym Darkfost.
🗞️ Retail activity hits historic lows as BTC inflows collapse
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 18, 2026
It is often said that the Bitcoin market is constantly evolving and transforming over time.
This can notably be observed through the behavior of different market participants, especially retail investors.
Here,… pic.twitter.com/2E9SdmfOHp
The expert classifies retail investors as those holding wallets with a balance of less than 1 BTC.
The average monthly inflow of coins from such users to Binance is currently 314 BTC. For comparison:
- During the bear phase of the current cycle, it averaged 1,800 BTC;
- At the peak in March 2024, it was around 1,200 BTC;
- In January 2024, it was 1,000 BTC.
In previous cycles, activity was significantly higher: in 2018, retail inflows reached 5,400 BTC, while in 2021, they were 2,600 BTC. Over the past two years, this figure has more than halved.
Darkfost noted that retail investors are gradually "disappearing from observable on-chain activity." He views this as a market transformation: some small players may have exited the industry entirely, while others prefer to invest in Bitcoin through spot ETFs instead of direct ownership of the asset.
Long-Term Investors
Darkfost observed an increase in Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders (LTHs), who now control 15.26 million BTC, a level not seen since August 2024. Over the past 30 days, this figure has risen by approximately 316,000 BTC.
📈 The supply held by Long Term Holders (LTHs) continues to increase as investors keep holding their BTC.
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 16, 2026
➡️ We are now back to 15.26 million BTC held by these investors, who are generally considered much more stable than STHs.
This brings the metric back to levels last seen… pic.twitter.com/0Cri4aFraB
The situation has changed since late November when there was a net outflow of 650,000 BTC from LTH wallets.
The expert noted that investors who bought cryptocurrency about six months ago are not rushing to take profits.
Darkfost predicts a significant jump in this metric around May 23, when 800,000 BTC previously moved by Coinbase will officially transition to the "held for more than six months" category, increasing the supply of long-term holders.
Recall that on May 13, the price of the first cryptocurrency fell below $80,000 amid rising inflation in the U.S.