Updated 29 minutes ago

CoinDesk is set to provide live coverage of the upcoming vote on the Clarity Act, scheduled to commence at 2:15pm ET.

Trump's Proposal for $5,000 Payments Could Avoid Deficit Increase, Says Bessent

During testimony before the House, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed President Trump's plan to distribute $5,000 to all U.S. adults if the GOP secures victory in the midterm elections. He noted that this approximately $1.2 trillion distribution could be managed without increasing the deficit.

Bitcoin Falls Below Recent Trading Range Amid Negative News

As the Federal Reserve prepares to initiate a rate-hike cycle to address inflation reminiscent of the 1970s oil crisis, the likelihood of the Clarity Act passing has dropped to 11% ahead of what is anticipated to be an initial vote later today. This combination of factors has driven bitcoin (BTC) down to $75,750, a decline of 3.5% over the last 24 hours, marking its lowest price since August 21. Meanwhile, ether (ETH) has decreased by 3.9% to $2,407, and solana (SOL) is down 3% to $98.50. The Nasdaq has fallen by 0.9%, and the S&P 500 is down 0.6%.

Crypto Stocks Decline Alongside Clarity Act's Passage Prospects

The chances of the Clarity Act becoming law this year have dwindled to nearly single digits, as tensions rise between Republicans and Democrats. This decline, coupled with falling crypto prices, is adversely affecting stocks associated with the crypto sector that could have benefitted from the legislation. Coinbase (COIN) has dropped 6.7%, Circle (CRCL) down 8%, Bullish (BLSH) has lost 4.6%, and Robinhood is down 3.6%.

Clarity Act's Passage Odds Diminish as GOP Rejects Democrat Proposal

The likelihood of the Clarity Act overcoming a significant Senate hurdle has diminished as Republicans have turned down a counterproposal from Democrats, leaving both parties at an impasse just hours prior to a crucial procedural vote. Polymarket bettors now estimate the chance of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 at just 14%, a sharp decline from approximately 30% the previous day.

Oil Prices Surge on Reports of Canceled Crude Shipments

According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia has notified European oil refiners that their September crude oil shipments are being canceled due to the closure of the East-West pipeline. Consequently, WTI crude prices have surged by about $2 per barrel in recent minutes, reaching $103.60. This spike has also contributed to rising bond yields, pushing the U.S. 10-year yield back above 5%, and has seen bitcoin dip to a session low of $76,300, down 2% over the past 24 hours.

Bloomberg Terminal Costs Set to Rise

In an unwelcome development for Bloomberg Terminal users, subscription prices are set to increase. Starting January 1, 2027, the monthly fee for a single license will rise approximately 3% from $140 to $155, according to Zerohedge. This announcement follows recent criticisms from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent directed at Bloomberg Terminal users who have expressed dissatisfaction with his bond buyback strategies, amid rising Treasury yields, which have reached a 19-year high of over 5%.

Trump to Accept Federal Reserve's Decision on Rate Hikes

Kevin Hassett, the chief economic adviser at the White House, stated that President Trump will respect whichever decision the Federal Reserve makes regarding interest rates on Wednesday. This represents a shift from remarks made over the weekend, where Hassett expressed hesitance about raising rates close to an election.

Oil Tanker Rates Surge Amid Rising Costs

Benchmark oil tanker rates (Bloomberg/Baltic Exchange)

The cost of chartering an oil tanker along the benchmark route from the Middle East to the Far East has exceeded $1 million per day for the first time, as reported by Bloomberg’s Javier Blas. This cost was under $100,000 just a year ago.

Clarity Act's Path to Law Remains Uncertain

The Senate's vote on the Clarity Act today is merely a procedural step to ascertain whether the bill can progress, rather than a final determination on the legislation itself. Should this procedural vote pass, the bill would enter floor debate, but it still requires approval from both the Senate and House in identical form before reaching the President's desk. As such, a successful vote today is only an initial step and does not assure the bill's enactment.

Adam Morgan McCarthy, lead researcher at LO:TECH, stated, "CLARITY is still far from becoming law even with this, and if it stalls I'd expect the crypto equities to give back more than BTC, given again the beta." He explained that the procedural vote needs about seven Democratic votes to achieve the 60 votes required for advancement, and that unresolved ethics issues related to the president's personal crypto holdings remain a concern.

U.S. Crypto Buyers Hold Back Ahead of Clarity Vote, Analyst Reports

According to Alice Liu, head of research at CMC, U.S. cryptocurrency investors have reduced their activity leading up to the Senate vote on the Clarity Act. This pullback is evidenced by bitcoin trading at a lower price on the Nasdaq-listed Coinbase exchange compared to the offshore exchange Binance and other platforms. Liu noted, "BTC open interest is down about 3.5% over seven days alongside price, and the Coinbase premium has turned slightly negative, indicating U.S. spot demand is on hold ahead of the vote." She added that spot BTC ETFs experienced approximately $300 million in net outflows over the last five sessions, followed by a $160 million inflow on Monday.

Crypto Market Still Reflects High Chances for Clarity Act's Passage

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is at $2.65 trillion, similar to its level in May when prediction markets indicated a better than 75% likelihood of the Clarity Act passing this year, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. He commented, "It appears the market is adapting to the possibility of living without this legislation." The market reached $2.71 trillion on Tuesday, matching last week's high, before retracting as Democrats introduced a counterproposal shortly before the vote.

Uniswap's UNI and Stellar saw gains of over 5% each, while XRP increased nearly 2%. In contrast, Filecoin fell nearly 11%, Internet Computer dropped around 7%, and Tezos lost about 6%.

Global Bond Market Decline Continues as Rate Hikes Loom

The global bond sell-off persists as investors prepare for a series of central bank decisions this week, with expectations for further interest rate hikes. Markets are anticipating a 94% likelihood of a 25-basis-point increase by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, which would raise its benchmark target range to 3.75% to 4%. The Bank of England is expected to follow with its own rate hike on Thursday, currently set at 3.75%. On Friday, the Bank of Japan is projected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, continuing the global trend toward tighter monetary policy. These moves come after last week’s 25-basis-point increase by the European Central Bank, which raised its main refinancing rate to 2.65%.

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 19-Year Peak of 5.04%

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note, a key indicator influencing borrowing costs and economic credit conditions, continues to rise. As of this report, the yield stands at 5.04%, reaching its highest level since July 2007, according to TradingView data. Although it surpassed the 5% mark in October 2023, it failed to maintain those levels. The benchmark yield has climbed by 80 basis points this year, with 25 basis points of that increase occurring this month alone. This sharp rise is largely attributed to concerns regarding fiscal sustainability rather than strong economic growth. Consequently, higher yields may not adversely affect non-yielding assets like gold and bitcoin in the same way they typically would during periods of growth-induced rate increases.

Ether's Trading Remains Volatile Within a Narrow Range

Prices for Ethereum’s native token, ether (ETH), continue to fluctuate within a narrow band between $2,350 and $2,550, occasionally spiking to $2,600. This range follows a significant rally in August and suggests a market awaiting a catalyst for its next major movement. A decisive bullish shift could occur if the Senate successfully passes a key procedural vote on the Clarity Act, which is anticipated to generate significant institutional interest in digital assets.

Market Anticipates Clarity Act's Failure Rather Than Success

Market expectations for the Clarity Act's passage this year have increased to roughly 30% from the low 20s after Senate Republicans unveiled a revised 630-page draft that incorporates numerous Democratic provisions to secure the 60 votes necessary for advancement, according to Yusuf Fakhro, a partner at ARP Digital. "The downside risk from a failed vote is largely factored in; a surprise passage is not," Fakhro stated. Meanwhile, trading activity in the derivatives market has decreased, with funding rates for leveraged long positions approaching zero, futures premiums dropping below 5%, and open interest stagnating. This lack of leverage means there is no significant pressure from forced sellers, allowing headlines to impact bitcoin prices more than they should. Last week, bitcoin surged 5% to $81,000 on Thursday due to softer Fed signals, only to retract those gains within hours when strong payroll data revived expectations of rate hikes. Demand has remained stable; bitcoin exchange-traded products absorbed nearly 14,000 BTC over the week, including 10,700 BTC on September 3, marking the strongest single day since April 2025. The Fed's decision is expected Wednesday, following the cloture vote.

Bitcoin Puts Become More Expensive Ahead of Key Votes

Bitcoin put options, which act as a hedge against market downturns, have become slightly more expensive than calls or bullish options. This trend is particularly evident in seven-day options, which coincide with a significant macro calendar: the Senate's Clarity Act vote on Tuesday, the Fed's decision on Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan's decision on Thursday. According to data tracking platform Laevitas, "BTC 7d 25D skew shifted from +2.16v to -1.05v (-3.21v week-over-week), and 30d from +1.33v to -1.39v (-2.72v), indicating that the put side is now marginally more valuable across both time frames." Both the Fed and the Bank of Japan are anticipated to increase their benchmark borrowing costs this week.

Polymarket Odds for Clarity Act Drop to 18%

On the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, the implied odds for the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 have plummeted to just 18%, a significant decrease from a peak of 30% on Monday. This drop follows reports that several Democrats, including potential supporters of the bill, have expressed concerns regarding the revised ethics proposal. The Senate is scheduled to vote today on the Clarity Act, a market structure bill that, if passed, could trigger substantial institutional demand for digital assets. The procedural vote requires 60 votes, meaning that Republican support alone will not suffice.

Bitcoin Dips to $77,400 Ahead of Clarity Act Vote

As of Tuesday morning in Europe, bitcoin was trading at approximately $77,400, remaining stable over 24 hours but down about 3% from its overnight peak of $79,530 and over 1% lower for the week, according to CoinDesk data. XRP saw notable gains, rising more than 2% to $1.41, while zcash increased nearly 3% to about $1,149. Ether, BNB, tron, hyperliquid's HYPE, and dogecoin all experienced minor losses of less than 1%, with solana remaining steady just above $101. Over the past week, dogecoin has fallen 7%, HYPE 5%, and BNB 3%.

The Senate is set to hold a procedural vote later today on the Clarity Act, a bill aimed at delineating oversight of digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This vote will determine if the bill progresses to debate.

Brian Vieten, a senior research analyst at Siebert Financial, suggested that the outcome may be less significant than traders believe. He stated in an email to CoinDesk, "We think the market is a bit too focused on whether Clarity passes." He added that a failure would leave U.S. companies to continue operating under the current SEC and CFTC framework, which could potentially accelerate product launches and tokenization efforts into 2027 and 2028 instead of delaying them. Achieving the 60 votes required for advancement will provide the first concrete indication of the bill's support within the Senate.

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