Heavy supply concentration and significant options positioning are keeping bitcoin's volatility in check and its price range-bound.
By James Van Straten|Edited by Sheldon Reback May 26, 2026, 9:11 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on Yearly Volume Weighted Cost Basis (Checkonchain)Key Points:
- Bitcoin has bounced back from its 128-day moving average situated around $74,500.
- The cryptocurrency is still trading below essential onchain resistance points near $77,000, which include the true market mean and short-term holder cost basis.
- With a $6.6 billion options expiry on Deribit coming on May 29, significant open interest at the $75,000 put and $80,000 call is leading market makers to stabilize price action within this range.
- Over 15% of bitcoin's total supply is held between $74,000 and $83,000.
Currently, bitcoin is priced at BTC$76,856.32 and has been closely aligned with the 2026 realized price, which is approximately $76,200, as reported by Checkonchain since early April.
The realized price represents the average acquisition cost for all bitcoin that was last transferred in a given year. This metric provides insight into the combined cost basis of market participants from 2026, and many consider it a more relevant indicator than traditional psychological price levels for support or resistance.
In February, when bitcoin dropped near $60,000, it found support close to the 2023 realized price, emphasizing the increasing significance of these cost-basis levels in influencing market dynamics.
This past weekend, bitcoin briefly fell to $74,500 before recovering from its 128-day moving average, a critical technical threshold.
At its current valuation, bitcoin trades beneath two crucial onchain metrics around $77,000: the true market mean and the short-term holder cost basis. These metrics are widely observed as indicators of market sentiment and short-term positioning.
BTC Price + Key Levels (CheckonChain)Market attention is also focused on the upcoming options expiry on May 29 on Deribit, where approximately $6.6 billion in open interest will expire.
The largest concentration of call options, roughly $600 million, is at the $80,000 strike price, while the most substantial put positioning is at $75,000, with around $377 million in open interest. As expiry nears, market makers and traders are motivated to stabilize price movements between these thresholds, leading to the current period of reduced volatility.
Data from Glassnode indicates that more than 15% of bitcoin's circulating supply has been purchased within the $74,000 to $83,000 range, highlighting the tight trading band and the significant supply concentration around these price points.
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