Summary
- The daily Bitcoin price chart indicates an RSI of 34, an ADX of 36.9 trending bearish, and a death cross EMA setup, pointing to a systematic decline.
- The support level at $58,035 held during Monday's intra-day dip to $58,801, but its future resilience is uncertain.
- On Myriad, traders estimate an 80% likelihood of Bitcoin prices dropping before any market recovery.
Today saw Wall Street experience gains, with the Nasdaq climbing 1.4% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.8%, following the Supreme Court's decision to prevent Trump's effort to dismiss Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook and a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran that eased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the positive movement in risk assets, Bitcoin has remained relatively unaffected. The cryptocurrency has decreased approximately 53% from its all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025 and has recently recorded two consecutive quarterly losses reminiscent of the 2022 bear market.
Bitcoin price data. Image: TradingviewThe broader economic environment is not favorable either. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a withdrawal of around $4 billion in June, which has removed the institutional support that previously mitigated price declines. The Federal Reserve, under Kevin Warsh, continues to adopt a hawkish stance, with markets anticipating an 80% probability of a rate hike in December.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Insights from the Daily Chart
On Monday, Bitcoin started trading at $59,473, dipped to a low of $58,801, and then rebounded to around $60,104, representing a +1.06% change.
This recovery was not coincidental. The $58,035 level serves as the foundation of the current bearish Fibonacci leg traced from the June peak of $67,253, acting as a crucial horizontal support line. Today, bulls entered the market near this level, but the question remains on how often they can continue to do so.
Bitcoin price data. Image: TradingviewThe Average Directional Index (ADX) currently reads 36.9, indicating the strength of the ongoing trend—anything above 25 reflects a genuine trend in motion.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which assesses buying and selling momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, is at 34, which suggests bearish conditions, just above the 30 threshold that typically indicates oversold territory. While an oversold condition can attract buyers and initiate a bounce, Bitcoin is still above that critical level at 34, with downward pressure evident.
The exponential moving averages present a consistently bearish outlook. The 50-day EMA is around $66,913, significantly above the current price, acting as a barrier. The 200-day EMA is even higher, approximately $76,517. The presence of the price below both moving averages, with the 50-day EMA also below the 200-day EMA—a scenario known as a death cross—signals that both medium- and long-term trends are downward. This trend is clearly reflected in the daily chart.
The overarching context is hard to overlook. On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt, traders are assigning an 80% chance to Bitcoin dropping to $55,000 instead of rebounding to $84,000.
This is not encouraging for those who remain overly optimistic about the market.
In general, as Bitcoin is currently in a compression zone, the four-hour chart may provide more relevance for traders with shorter timeframes. Bitcoin's price has been consolidating between approximately $59,200 and $60,400, with the Squeeze still active at that timeframe, reflecting slightly positive momentum (+0.26).
Bitcoin price data. Image: TradingviewThis creates a predictable price movement as long as the compression persists. With 5x leverage, trading within that $1,200 range could yield around 21.1% on reinvested capital—potentially transforming $1,000 into nearly $2,000 across several cycles with manageable risk. This is the strategy while the compression holds. A break below $59,200 would invalidate this approach.
If the $58,035 support level fails, the daily chart reveals no significant support until reaching $55,528—aligning closely with Myriad's pessimistic scenario. For bullish traders, the first significant target for recovery is the Fibonacci Golden Zone between $62,644 and $63,732 on the daily chart, which must be reclaimed to even consider a trend reversal.
Above this zone lies a descending trendline around $65,000. Clearing both this trendline and the 50-day EMA at $66,913 would be significant, as Bitcoin has not approached this level in over a month.
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed by the author are solely for informational purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.