Summary
- Over a span of nine days ending May 28, Bitcoin ETFs witnessed outflows totaling $2.8 billion.
- According to a report from CryptoQuant, whale balances are decreasing year-over-year, aligning with the pace seen during the bear market of 2022.
- The long-term holder supply of Bitcoin has reached a historic high of 15.8 million BTC, indicating a lack of new buyers rather than accumulation.
The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market continues to decline as the interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs diminishes, leading to a significant outflow of institutional investments.
Bitcoin ETFs experienced a total outflow of $2.8 billion over nine straight days starting from May 15, as reported by SoSoValue data. The largest outflow occurred on Wednesday, amounting to $733.43 million, primarily due to a $527.84 million withdrawal from BlackRock’s IBIT.
In the weekly context, the outflow began with $1 billion in mid-May, which increased to $1.26 billion the subsequent week. This week has already recorded $1.30 billion in outflows, indicating a significant change in investor sentiment since mid-May.
Wednesday marked the highest net outflows of the year and the fifth worst day in history for Bitcoin ETFs, as noted by analysts from Galaxy Research, who stated, “Those outflows pushed ETF year-to-date flows negative for the year.”
Analysts have characterized the recent surge in Bitcoin ETF outflows as a “real directional recalibration,” rather than mere “profit-taking or adjustments in hedged exposure,” as previously reported by Decrypt.
Yesterday saw the most significant net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs this year (-$723.5m) and ranked as the 5th worst day ever.
These outflows resulted in negative year-to-date flows for the ETF sector 👀 pic.twitter.com/WNEotcBfZ3
— Galaxy Research (@glxyresearch) May 28, 2026
Factors contributing to these ETF outflows include the AI boom and the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Coinshares attributed the ETF withdrawals to geopolitical tensions in its recent report. Furthermore, the S&P 500 index's performance illustrates that only a small number of stocks, particularly the MAG7 and those linked to AI, are driving the index to record highs, suggesting a shift in investor focus towards the stock market over cryptocurrencies.
Micron, a leading American semiconductor manufacturer, saw its stock soar by 207% following U.S. President Trump's endorsement on May 22, exemplifying the influence of the AI-driven market.
This surge propelled Micron's market capitalization from approximately $850 billion on May 21 to $1 trillion within five days, marking a 15% increase.
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market, including the S&P 500 index, reached a new record high of 7,568 on Friday. In contrast, the crypto market remains stagnant as Bitcoin struggles to recover after failing to break through the $82,000 resistance level.
Over the past week and month, Bitcoin has declined by about 5.4%, trading below $74,000 and hitting a six-week low, based on data from CoinGecko.
Users on the prediction market Myriad, which is owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, have assigned a 59% probability that WTI crude oil will move closer to the $120 mark, reflecting the uncertain market environment.
Conversely, sentiment around Bitcoin remains bearish, with users indicating a 63% chance that its next move will push it to $84,000. This figure has dropped from 92% on May 6, indicating a decline in bullish sentiment.
On-chain data further substantiates this pessimistic outlook. Whale balances (holding 1K-10K BTC) are decreasing year-over-year at the fastest rate of 2026, reflecting patterns similar to the 2022 bear market. Meanwhile, dolphin balances (holding 100-1K BTC) have fallen below their 365-day moving average, a level historically associated with sustained price corrections, as detailed in a report from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Long-term holder supply has reached a record 15.8 million BTC, which the report interprets as bearish, indicating a lack of new buyers rather than accumulation. Additionally, short-term holder supply has decreased from 6.4 million BTC in December to around 4.2 million BTC today, with approximately 900,000 BTC of that decline linked to Coinbase reserves transitioning into long-term holdings.