Summary

  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced five consecutive days of net inflows totaling $853.5 million last week, as reported by SoSoValue.
  • Approximately $690 million of that amount was funneled into BlackRock's IBIT, representing around 80% of the total inflows for the week.
  • As of Monday morning, Bitcoin was trading at roughly $65,000, which is about 48% lower than its record high from October 2025, according to CoinGecko.

Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $853.5 million over five consecutive sessions, according to SoSoValue. This followed a net outflow of $61.5 million the previous week and brought total net inflows since their inception to $52.18 billion.

BlackRock's IBIT accounted for around $690 million of the inflows, as noted by Stephen Wundke, strategy and revenue director at Algoz Technologies. On Friday alone, IBIT attracted $86.7 million, while Fidelity's FBTC garnered $41 million. Conversely, Invesco's BTCO lost $19.4 million, and VanEck's HODL saw a decline of $10.6 million.

As the weekend approached, daily inflows decreased from $128.7 million on Thursday to $98.9 million on Friday. By the week's end, the funds held $79.5 billion, representing approximately 6.1% of Bitcoin's market cap.

According to Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey, the recent inflows suggest that after a brief pullback in the AI sector, institutional investors are returning to Bitcoin. He believes the inflows could be a mix of portfolio rebalancing and basis trading.

Macro Perspective

Sun highlighted that weakening U.S. job data and diminishing expectations for interest rate hikes are significant factors influencing the market. Recent figures revealed that employers reduced their workforce by 23,000 jobs in July, contrary to predictions of a 95,000 increase. Bitcoin is currently in a "death cross," with its 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day average. The probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 55% to 40% by Friday, before rising to 46% on Monday.

Sun mentioned that the decline in AI-related stocks has made global risk capital more available, leading to increased investments in less crowded assets. He indicated that the $60,000 to $61,000 range has served as a support level that the market has tested multiple times.

However, he cautioned against interpreting this week’s inflows as a definitive trend change. Sun stated that these inflows are insufficient to indicate a trend reversal, noting that the likelihood of rate hikes remains and long-term Treasury yields continue to be high.

CoinShares took a more optimistic stance, with head of research James Butterfill stating in a Friday update that the cycle's lows might be behind us. However, he warned that this does not guarantee an immediate surge in prices. Butterfill anticipates Bitcoin will trade within a range for two to three months, potentially moving toward $80,000. On Monday morning, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $65,100, reflecting a 0.4% increase for the day, as per CoinGecko data.

Butterfill pointed out that there have been three consecutive weeks of accumulation by large holders (whales) following about $40 billion in whale selling since October 2025. Additionally, there were $1.05 billion in inflows into digital asset investment products globally last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of positive inflows. This trend suggests a pattern of capitulation followed by early re-accumulation, he explained. For Bitcoin to reach $100,000, a more pronounced decline in employment data and a significant reduction in rate expectations would be necessary.

The drop in rate expectations, renewed inflows, and three weeks of whale accumulation indicate that @Bitcoin’s cycle lows may be behind us.

However, a sustained breakout still requires clearer macroeconomic support.@jbutterfill elaborates on this in this week's Market Update. See the first comment. pic.twitter.com/yh8tBYO0Pa

— CoinShares (@CoinSharesCo) August 7, 2026

The Coldcard Hypothesis

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas proposed an alternative theory. He noted that IBIT, FBTC, and several other ETFs have seen daily inflows since the onset of the Coldcard exploit, which has been draining Bitcoin from secure wallets. He remarked on social media that this correlation suggests a possible causative link, calling it the third-best week for inflows since October. He added that it would be ironic if a theft from cold storage signaled the beginning of the next market surge.