Key Highlights
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $102.7 million on Thursday and $31.7 million on Friday, totaling $134.4 million in net inflows for the start of October, according to Decrypt's tracker.
- This influx comes after a significant $148.7 million outflow on September 30, which halted a streak of nine consecutive inflow days.
- A disappointing jobs report reduced the likelihood of an October rate hike, although many traders are still predicting a 93% chance that Bitcoin will not achieve a new high this year.
Bitcoin ETFs are embracing the "Uptober" phenomenon, at least for now.
According to Decrypt's Bitcoin ETF tracker, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $102.7 million on Thursday and an additional $31.7 million on Friday, bringing the total net inflows for October to $134.4 million.
Myriad: Predict the peak of Bitcoin's price.This positive start follows a negative end to September, during which the funds lost $148.7 million on the last day, breaking a nine-day inflow streak that began on September 17. Nevertheless, September marked the second-best month since October 2025, with total inflows reaching $2.65 billion, as per SoSoValue data.
The term "Uptober" refers to October's historical performance as one of the most robust months for Bitcoin. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has shown an average gain of 18% in October, as noted by Algoz's Stephen Wundke in an interview with Decrypt. He remarked, "Traders perceive more potential for growth than for decline at this moment."
Net flows for Bitcoin ETFs. Image: DecryptThe jobs report released on Friday contributed to the optimism. The U.S. economy saw only 29,000 jobs added in September, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Following this news, the odds of an October rate hike fell from 70% earlier in the week to just 14%. A softer labor market reduces the Federal Reserve's pressure to raise rates, which is generally favorable for riskier assets like Bitcoin.
On Friday, Bitcoin touched $87,173, approaching its September high of $87,354, before retreating. As of Sunday morning, it was trading around $85,000, reflecting a 0.5% increase over the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
Since the launch of these funds, cumulative net inflows have reached $58.1 billion, with total net assets at $101.1 billion, as reported by Decrypt's tracker.
However, not everyone is convinced of an imminent breakout. Traders on Myriad, a prediction market operated by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, assign a 93% probability that Bitcoin will not reach a new all-time high in 2026.
Year-to-date ETF inflows are still below $1 billion after significant outflows earlier this year. Upcoming tests include September's CPI report scheduled for October 14 and a Federal Reserve meeting on October 28.