Your day-ahead look for June 22, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 22, 2026, 11:30 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on (Maximov Denis/Shutterstock)SummaryShowThis is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
As traders return to the markets after a prolonged U.S. holiday weekend, two significant factors may impact the value of bitcoin BTC$64,591.65 and other leading cryptocurrencies, which are currently buoyed by optimistic sentiments surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations.
The first factor concerns bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, which experienced another $228 million in redemptions during the shortened trading week. This marks the sixth consecutive week of outflows, increasing the total to $5.94 billion, as reported by SoSoValue.
On a positive note, the rate of outflows has diminished for two successive weeks. This follows a previous withdrawal of $315.84 million, indicating a shift from earlier weeks where outflows exceeded $1 billion weekly and escalated each week thereafter.
Tagus Capital noted in an email, "Although the market has yet to see consistent net inflows, the slowdown suggests that the most intense phase of institutional de-risking is subsiding, with flows becoming more selective and balanced."
The firm added, "This overall trend suggests a stabilizing yet still fragile demand environment for ETFs, where investor exits are no longer accelerating but rather gradually reallocating funds, potentially establishing a floor for downside risks."
The second significant dynamic is the disconnect between the U.S. two-year Treasury yield—which is closely tied to Federal Reserve interest rate expectations—and WTI crude oil futures. While oil prices have plummeted, the two-year yield has risen, currently sitting at 4.21%, the highest level since February 2025. (Refer to the Daily Signal.)
This divergence indicates that concerns about oil and geopolitical risks for risk assets are being overshadowed by expectations of rate hikes from the Fed. Analysts speculate that the secondary effects of the March spike in oil prices could sustain inflation in the near term, increasing the chances of interest rate hikes.
The core PCE, which the Fed favors as an inflation measure, is anticipated to confirm this trend. FactSet forecasts a monthly increase of 0.37%, which would elevate the annual rate to 3.4%, the highest since May 2024.
In summary, the ongoing outflows from ETFs, albeit at a slower pace, combined with the hawkish signals from bond yields, suggest a lower likelihood of a robust BTC price recovery in the near future.
Additionally, the actions of Strategy, the largest publicly traded holder of BTC, will be crucial in addressing concerns about the volatility in its STRC preferred stock. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For insights into today's altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today . For a full schedule of events this week, check out CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Taiko stops its Ethereum layer-2 network after a bridge exploit, token drops (CoinDesk): Taiko halted block production and advised users to withdraw their funds after an attacker forged proofs used by a bridge for confirming withdrawals. Estimated losses are around $1.7 million.
- Ethereum validators proposed to fund projects with a portion of staking rewards (CoinDesk): A new proposal introduced “validator redirected revenue,” allowing network operators to allocate part of their staking rewards to ecosystem funding.
- U.S.-Iran negotiations show 'positive progress' but tensions persist (Reuters): U.S. and Iranian officials reported "positive progress" in their initial talks in Switzerland, though tensions remain over Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have decreased.
- SpaceX stock continues to decline post-IPO rally (CNBC): SpaceX shares fell over 4.3% in premarket trading on Monday, extending a selloff following a rally after a record-breaking IPO. The stock remains up 37% overall.
Today’s signal
U.S. two-year Treasury yield compared to WTI crude futures. (TradingView)The chart illustrates the performance of the U.S. two-year yield alongside Nymex-listed WTI crude futures.
Initially, both indicators moved together after the onset of the Iran conflict in early March, which disrupted global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to exceed $100 per barrel.
From March to late May, the two-year yield tracked oil price fluctuations, indicating that energy prices were a major headwind for all markets, including cryptocurrencies.
However, despite a nearly 20% drop in oil prices in recent weeks, the two-year yield has reached 16-month highs. This divergence reflects a shift from oil and geopolitical risks to Fed hawkishness as a more significant challenge for risk assets.
- 1As bitcoin and altcoin values rise, derivatives indicate skepticism about a sustained rally54 minutes ago
- 2Bank of England relaxes strict stablecoin holding limits, sets $50 billion issuance cap1 hour ago
- 3Geopolitical relief coincides with the Warsh Fed: Crypto Week Ahead1 hour ago
- 4Taiko stops its Ethereum layer-2 network following a bridge exploit, token drops2 hours ago
- 5Analyst suggests Bitcoin price could reach $54,000, having accurately predicted last October's peak2 hours ago
- 6Live markets: Bitcoin hovers around $64,000 as ETF outflows continue for a sixth week4 hours ago
- 7Bitcoin developers aim to address the 'replace this transaction with a higher fee' button issue.5 hours ago
- 8Ethereum validators proposed to allocate a portion of staking rewards to fund projects6 hours ago
- 9XRP temporarily falls below $1.14 support before a strong buyer rebound6 hours ago
- 10Bitcoin remains around $64,000 as U.S.-Iran talks advance but crypto misses the rally7 hours ago
CEX Volumes Decline to Lowest Level Since September 2024 as RWA Perpetuals Reach Record High
CEX Volumes Decline to Lowest Level Since September 2024 as RWA Perpetuals Reach Record High
In May, overall exchange volumes decreased by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest since September 2024. Meanwhile, RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, achieving a new all-time high.
By CoinDesk ResearchJun 15, 2026In May, overall exchange volumes decreased by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest since September 2024. Meanwhile, RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, achieving a new all-time high.
Why it matters:
In May, overall exchange volumes decreased by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest since September 2024. Meanwhile, RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, achieving a new all-time high.
View Full ReportMore From Crypto Daybook Americas