MarketsShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailBitcoin ETF Outflows Linked to Arbitrage, Not SpaceX
Recent analysis suggests that the outflows from bitcoin ETFs are not driven by investors reallocating funds for IPOs like SpaceX, according to Sygnum's Fabian Dori.
By Jamie Crawley, AI Boost|Edited by Omkar Godbole Jun 11, 2026, 12:42 p.m. 2 min readMake preferred on
(Jakub Żerdzicki/Pixabay)Key Insights:
- Fabian Dori, Sygnum's CIO, argues that the latest outflows from bitcoin ETFs lack support from market data indicating a shift to IPOs like SpaceX.
- Indicators such as exchange flows, stablecoin balances, and crypto risk appetite show no significant capital movement from digital assets, according to Dori.
- The derivatives market may provide the strongest counterpoint to the theory of capital rotation towards IPOs.
Since mid-May, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen outflows totaling approximately $5.75 billion, leading to speculation that institutional investors are liquidating their crypto investments in anticipation of the highly awaited SpaceX IPO.
This selling pressure resulted in bitcoin dropping to a low of $60,000 in early June, which is over 50% lower than its record high of nearly $125,000 last October. A common narrative surrounding this downturn is that capital is being moved away from cryptocurrencies to prepare for a series of highly anticipated IPOs, starting with SpaceX (SPCX) on Friday.
However, Fabian Dori, the chief investment officer at Swiss digital asset bank Sygnum, disagrees with this view.
"The ETF outflows are real," Dori mentioned in a CoinDesk interview. "However, the data doesn’t substantiate the theory that bitcoin is losing value due to the SpaceX IPO."
Dori argues that if investors were indeed selling bitcoin to fund IPO investments, one would expect to see unusual outflow patterns in exchange balances and a decline in stablecoin market capitalization as capital exited the crypto sector. Neither of these conditions is evident.
Exchange flows remain largely stable, while the supply of stablecoins has not seen significant contraction. Additionally, riskier segments of the digital asset market are still attracting investments, which Dori claims would be unlikely if investors were entirely abandoning the sector.
Dori points out that the most compelling argument against the IPO-rotation narrative comes from the derivatives market.
He noted a decrease in open interest for CME bitcoin futures occurring alongside ETF redemptions, indicating that a substantial portion of the outflows may be related to the unwinding of cash-and-carry arbitrage trades rather than a shift towards equity investments.
A cash-and-carry trade is a common institutional strategy aimed at profiting from discrepancies between bitcoin's spot and futures prices. Investors typically purchase spot bitcoin, often via an ETF, and simultaneously sell futures contracts. If futures prices remain higher than spot prices, this allows for earning a low-risk yield at expiry.
When the premium diminishes or funding conditions change, traders may close their positions, leading to ETF outflows even if they maintain a positive outlook on bitcoin. In this case, the arbitrage opportunity simply becomes less lucrative.
"The correlation between open interest and funding rates has been notably positive during this period," Dori explained. "This indicates that a significant portion of the ETF flows is associated with the unwinding of funding-rate carry-trade arbitrage."
Read More: It's not just bitcoin ETFs. Corporate BTC buying has dried up too
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