Markets Bitcoin Rises with Equities, But $390 Million ETF Outflow Poses Challenges for Bulls
Despite a positive movement in equity markets, Bitcoin faces headwinds from a significant $390 million outflow from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), leaving traders uncertain about future momentum.
By Oliver Knight, Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Updated 28 minutes ago Published 1 hour ago 3 min read
Bitcoin price (CoinDesk data)- Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced four consecutive days of outflows, totaling a net loss of $390 million, marking the largest weekly withdrawal in six weeks. Conversely, Solana ETFs saw their strongest inflows since May.
- Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, has reduced the likelihood of the Clarity Act being enacted by 2026 to around 10%, down from 75% in May.
- Bitcoin has shown a modest increase of 0.77% since midnight UTC, while Nasdaq 100 index futures have risen 0.5%, reaching their highest point since July 2.
- According to CoinMarketCap, the Fear and Greed index is currently at 38/100, indicating a “fear” sentiment, while the Altcoin Season Index is at 46, suggesting a recovery in altcoin strength from a low of 36 on August 7.
Bitcoin BTC$63,595.01 maintained a position above $63,000 on Monday, recovering a small portion of its losses from the previous week with a 0.8% gain since midnight UTC.
Without clear catalysts, Bitcoin's price movements are closely mirroring those of U.S. equities, particularly with the Nasdaq 100 index futures increasing by 0.5% to their highest level since July 2.
However, any bullish outlook must consider the recent outflow of $390 million from spot ETFs, marking the first three-day withdrawal since late July and the largest weekly drop in six weeks.
Flows for Ether ETH$1,904.66 ETFs were limited, while Solana (SOL) ETFs defied the trend with notable inflows.
The broader context of the Clarity Act remains a focal point. Alex Thorn from Galaxy Research has now placed the chances of this significant crypto legislation passing into law by 2026 at approximately 10% as of August 14, aligning with prediction markets that estimate the probability at around 17%. A cloture vote is set for September 15, when the Senate reconvenes, although observers anticipate further delays.
Derivatives Positioning
- Taker ratio remains balanced: The 24-hour long-short volume ratio for takers has stabilized, continuing Friday’s trend. Takers are those who pull liquidity from the order book by trading at current prices.
- Thin liquidity increases swing risk: Bitcoin's notional open interest, currently at $48 billion, is nearly double its 24-hour trading volume. XRP shows a similar trend, indicating that any large liquidation could face low liquidity, heightening the risk of significant price fluctuations.
- BTC open interest declines, XRP stays steady: In terms of contracts, Bitcoin's open interest has decreased to 750,000 BTC from 760,000 BTC on Friday, a pattern observed since April where surges above 750,000 BTC tend to be short-lived. In contrast, XRP futures exhibit stability, with open interest at a 10-month high. ETH and SOL positioning remains comparatively light.
- CC shows bearish buildup: The Canton Network's CC token has fallen over 1.5% in 24 hours, becoming one of the largest losers among the top 100 coins by market cap. Open interest in futures linked to this token has increased by over 5% during the same timeframe, suggesting that bearish positions are being established. Negative annualized perpetual funding rates and a negative open interest-adjusted 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) support this interpretation, indicating a bearish market sentiment.
- ZEC defies the trend: Privacy-focused ZEC also experienced an increase in open interest, supported by a positive 24-hour CVD, suggesting that bulls are more aggressive, opting for market orders rather than passive limit orders. ZEC's funding rate is also positive at +10%, signaling a growing inclination towards bullish positions.
- Volatility and fear remain low: The 30-day implied volatility indexes for Bitcoin and Ether are near their year-to-date lows, reflecting muted fear levels and a low demand for options-based protection against price swings. Wall Street's VIX indicates a similar trend, being at its lowest since January.
- Options positioning indicates short-term bullishness: On Deribit, the skew for BTC and ETH reveals a preference for calls, or bullish positions, at the near end of the curve. The implied volatility term structure shows no signs of immediate stress, despite the upcoming release of the Fed minutes on Wednesday.
- Volume rankings show division: The 24-hour volume rankings present a mixed picture, with both BTC calls and puts among the top five most-traded instruments, a trend that also applies to Ether.
Token Highlights
- Pump.fun PUMP$0.002886 has emerged as a top performer on Monday, increasing by 7.80% since midnight UTC, with daily trading volume climbing 55% to $90 million.
- ZEC saw a 4.70% gain since midnight, now priced at $508, continuing a positive trend for privacy coins following XMR's strong performance last week.
- MORPHO rose by 5% to $2.07, recovering some of Friday's losses and leading the DeFi space upward.
- HYPE increased by 3.53% to $59.08, maintaining its steady upward trajectory and now up about 2% for the week.
- FET is among the weakest altcoins on Monday, down 1.56% since midnight at $0.1196, giving back some of last week's gains as tokens associated with AI lose traction.
- CoinMarketCap's “Altcoin Season” indicator is currently at 46/100, recovering from the August 7 low of 36/100, signaling a gradual return of optimism in the altcoin market. The Fear and Greed index stands at 38/100, reflecting a state of fear among investors.