Half of the last 24 months have ended positively for digital gold. Based on this data, economist Timothy Peterson estimates an 88% chance of the asset rising in the next 10 months.

Source: X. 

According to his calculations, during the next rally, the leading cryptocurrency could increase by 82% from current levels—approximately reaching $122,000.

As reported by CoinGlass, in 2025, digital gold showed positive performance in January, April, May, June, July, and September. 

Source: CoinGlass.

Peterson uses this metric as an "unofficial indicator" to track Bitcoin cycles, helping to identify trend reversal points. 

Source: X. 

"The indicator measures frequency rather than the magnitude of price changes. Therefore, an asset can remain at the same level for several months, and the indicator can still decline," the expert explained. 

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According to analyst DurdenBTC, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit is at the zero percentile.

Source: X.

"This is lower than in December 2018 when the price was $3,359 (43% of supply in profit). Lower than during the COVID-19 pandemic at $4,959 (48%). Lower than after the FTX collapse at $15,778 (49%). [...] This is what happens when the entire cycle buys Bitcoin at the peak," he added. 

MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe pointed out an "interesting chart" showing that non-commercial traders, primarily hedge funds and institutional investors, have reduced their net short positions in Bitcoin to extremely low levels. 

A fascinating chart.

Non-commercial traders, primarily hedge funds and institutions, are currently at one of their most extreme net long positions in #Bitcoin in the entire dataset.

The red line has plunged deeply negative, meaning the "net short position" is at historic… pic.twitter.com/hX3qAd8lw9

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 22, 2026

This class of traders now holds a significant share of long positions in Bitcoin futures. In previous instances when this occurred, markets experienced substantial rallies, the analyst noted. 

Alphractal CEO João Wedson emphasized that the buy/sell pressure delta for Bitcoin remains negative.

Buy/Sell Pressure Delta in BTC remains negative. 🔴

We will only turn bullish when it approaches 0, as that will signal a potential reversal to the upside.

Until then, bears still maintain control over the price, and if this pressure continues, price is likely to decline… https://t.co/eM3kAQpR9K pic.twitter.com/QjpFlVIEfE

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) February 21, 2026

He believes the market will only shift to a bullish trend when the ratio approaches 0, signaling a potential upward reversal. Until then, bears will continue to control the price.

Investment director at Bitwise, Matt Hougan, stated that in 2026, the leading cryptocurrency will begin to rise, but the shocking events of early February did not mark the final bottom for the asset.