Bitcoin ends half of the last 24 months positively, with predictions of an 82% rise to $122,000 amid market uncertainty.
Bitcoin has concluded half of the past two years on a positive note, leading economist Timothy Peterson to predict an 88% chance of the cryptocurrency appreciating over the next ten months. His analysis suggests that Bitcoin could potentially rise by 82%, aiming for a target of approximately $122,000.
Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated robust performance in various months, including January, April, May, June, July, and September 2025, as noted by CoinGlass.
Peterson explained that his metric acts as an "unofficial indicator" for tracking Bitcoin cycles, focusing on the frequency of price changes rather than their magnitude.
Current Market Dynamics
Market analyst DurdenBTC revealed that the proportion of Bitcoin supply currently in profit is at an all-time low. This statistic is lower than during significant market troughs in December 2018 and the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating that many investors purchased Bitcoin at its peak.
DurdenBTC noted that this situation reflects a market cycle where the majority bought at high prices, resulting in minimal profit.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, highlighted a notable trend among non-commercial traders, primarily hedge funds and institutional investors, who have significantly reduced their net short positions in Bitcoin. This group now holds a considerable number of long positions, which historically has preceded substantial market rallies.
Van de Poppe remarked on the extreme net long positions currently held by these traders, suggesting potential for future market growth.
Conversely, João Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, pointed out that the buy/sell pressure delta for Bitcoin remains negative, indicating that bears still dominate the market. He warned that a shift to a bullish trend will only occur when this ratio approaches zero.
Wedson stated that until then, bearish conditions are likely to persist, potentially leading to further price declines.
Finally, Matt Hougan, investment director at Bitwise, expressed optimism for Bitcoin's rise in 2026, although he cautioned that recent events do not signify the final bottom for the asset.
