In August, Bitcoin recorded a remarkable 24% increase, marking its best monthly performance since November 2024, according to data from CoinGlass.
Monthly Bitcoin returns in percentage. Source: CoinGlass.Throughout the month, Bitcoin rebounded from approximately $64,000, briefly surpassing $81,000. However, momentum weakened by the end of August; following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, prices dipped to $76,877 and have yet to recover to previous peaks.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $78,000. The rise in expectations for an increase in the key interest rate in the U.S. is putting pressure on risk assets. The market currently estimates a 64% probability of such a decision at the upcoming meeting on September 16, according to CME FedWatch.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.Spot Volumes Hover Near Three-Year Lows
Despite the strong performance in August, there has not been a widespread recovery in trading activity.
CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym Darkfost noted that Bitcoin's spot volumes on major centralized exchanges remain near the lows recorded in September 2023.
🗞️ Bitcoin volumes hold near 3-year lows despite 30% August rally. During the month of August, bitcoin:native delivered a performance exceeding 30%, yet trading volumes across various exchanges continue to show a certain weakness, in line with the trend seen in July. These… pic.twitter.com/92rgcIDENK
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) August 30, 2026
On Binance, August 2026 volumes were around $44 billion, down from $198 billion in October 2025. On Gate, volumes fell from $53.4 billion to $14 billion, while Bybit saw a decline from $41.2 billion to $17.4 billion. On average, the reduction across these exchanges reached about 70%.
However, the rate of decline in activity has ceased to accelerate. Binance's volume was approximately $1.6 billion higher than in July, and other major platforms showed overall stability compared to the previous month. Darkfost described this as the first sign of a halt in the decline.
Local Demand Emerges in South Korea
Amidst this backdrop, a positive signal has come from South Korea. Bitcoin is trading about 1% higher on the largest local exchange, Upbit, compared to Binance. This positive "kimchi premium" has persisted for a week, marking the longest streak since early May, as noted by South Korean trader crypto sunmoon.
Korean Investors are Returning to the Crypto Market. “And much like the Coinbase Premium, the shift from negative to positive territory has typically been followed by a positive trend.” – By @t0_god pic.twitter.com/UGCN0DCSTX
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 1, 2026
For most of the summer, the opposite was true. In early June, the discount in the Korean market reached 3.1%, and on average in August, Bitcoin was about 0.25% cheaper than on global platforms.
However, Marcus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, stated to Bloomberg that the return of the "kimchi premium" has not yet been accompanied by an increase in spot volumes. He believes this reduces the likelihood that South Korean traders will become a primary driver of Bitcoin's recovery at this stage.
Large Wallets Increase BTC Holdings
The growth in August coincided with a redistribution of Bitcoin towards larger holders. Data from CryptoQuant shows that from August 1 to 30, wallets holding more than 100 BTC increased their reserves by approximately 60,000 BTC.
Source: CryptoQuant.In contrast, addresses holding between 1 and 100 BTC reduced their positions by around 33,000 BTC, while holders with less than 1 BTC decreased their holdings by another 14,000 BTC. The buying activity from larger participants accelerated after Bitcoin exited the $62,000-$65,000 range on August 19. By August 30, there were no signs of mass selling of the coins they had accumulated.
Glassnode Observes Mixed Signals
Institutional demand remains robust. Glassnode reported continued inflows into American Bitcoin ETFs and the profitability of most positions in these instruments.
bitcoin:native holds near $78,300 after rallying from $64k lows. Institutional inflows stay strong, but rising leverage, tight volatility spreads, and softening retail activity point to a cautious, transitional market. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇https://t.co/9xBw0Ix5KV pic.twitter.com/0bnhhLY990
— glassnode (@glassnode) August 31, 2026
At the same time, analysts have noted a cooling in the spot segment and retail sector. Exchange volumes have decreased, and the number of active addresses and total fees have slightly declined, although on-chain transfer volumes remain elevated.
Conversely, the derivatives market is seeing an increase in speculative sentiment, with rising interest in options and a narrowing spread between expected and realized volatility.
According to Glassnode, the current phase is transitional: stable institutional demand and improvements in several on-chain metrics coexist with rising leverage, diminishing retail interest, and early signs of coin distribution.
It’s worth noting that on August 25, Bitcoin surpassed $80,000 for the first time since mid-May. During that time, American spot ETFs attracted approximately $2.26 billion over six trading sessions.