In the event of a prolonged 20% correction in the S&P 500, Bitcoin is predicted to inevitably fall back to its long-term support level near $10,000, according to Mike McGlone, a senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Bitcoin Sell Signals - Elevated Stocks, Fed Hikes

It's a highly volatile and speculative digital asset, correlated with the stock market and now burdened by being beta for millions of crypto companions.

Bitcoin's performance has roughly matched the S&P 500 over the past five… pic.twitter.com/NXJAkMdUgB

— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) September 13, 2026

In his latest market report, he referred to Bitcoin as a "puppet of the stock market" and noted the emergence of three sell signals.

Three Pressuring Factors

McGlone outlined several reasons why Bitcoin might decline:

  • The price rebound has stalled at $76,746, failing to break the psychological barrier of $80,000;
  • One-year futures on the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate (FF13-FF1) indicate a rise of 70 basis points, which is draining liquidity from speculative markets;
  • The S&P 500 has moved significantly above its 200-week moving average, increasing the risk of large profit-taking by institutional investors.

Bitcoin Underperforming as an Asset

McGlone emphasized that over the past five years, Bitcoin's returns have only matched those of the S&P 500, while investors have faced nearly three times the volatility.

"From a risk management and portfolio perspective — this is a failure," the analyst stated.

Furthermore, Bitcoin, created in 2009 as a unique tool amid the global financial crisis, now carries the weight of increased beta for "millions" of competing cryptocurrencies. This has linked it to the trajectory of technology stocks, McGlone noted.

There Is an Alternative

The only scenario that could refute the bearish outlook is if Bitcoin demonstrates sustained strength amidst a declining stock market. If the asset proves its independence and begins to rise despite falling stocks, the notion of it being a "high-beta risk asset" would be proven inaccurate, McGlone pointed out.

Currently, macroeconomic indicators point in the opposite direction.

McGlone has consistently maintained his forecast of a return to $10,000 since at least December 2025. He later explained that the main catalysts for Bitcoin's growth — spot ETFs, political support from Trump, and institutional acceptance — have already been priced in by the market. In April, he linked a potential Bitcoin crash to the loss of key Fibonacci retracement levels around $75,000.

Adam Back Disagrees

Adam Back, a veteran in the crypto industry and CEO of Blockstream, indicated that Bitcoin is unlikely to sustainably drop below $65,000.

#bitcoin passes $65k 200wma https://t.co/6W3RSiLkB3 pic.twitter.com/dpANttnQG3

— Adam Back (@adam3us) September 13, 2026

The 200-day moving average price has risen to this level. Historically, this indicator has been regarded as a mathematical lower bound, with prices only briefly falling below this line during deep bear phases.

It is worth noting that the leading cryptocurrency has been stuck around $77,000, lacking spot demand as investors await the Federal Reserve's decision on the key interest rate.