Your day-ahead look for Sept. 16, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback43 min ago3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision will influence crypto markets. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)SummaryShowThis is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
Bitcoin's BTC$76,203.79 market has shown a unique behavior leading up to Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest-rate decision, detaching from the Dollar Index and U.S. stock movements.
Data from CoinMarketCap indicates that the short-term correlation between bitcoin and the Dollar Index—an indicator of the U.S. dollar's strength relative to other currencies—has plummeted to almost zero. Similarly, the connection between bitcoin and equities has diminished.
“Bitcoin’s short-window [15-day or less] correlation to the dollar index sits at +0.08, compared to -0.54 over the prior 30 days. Its correlation with the S&P 500 has dropped to 0.43 from 0.75, with the Nasdaq falling to 0.30 from 0.60, and gold to 0.28 from 0.69 over 30 days,” stated Alice Liu, head of research at CoinMarketCap, in a note to CoinDesk.
This divergence can be attributed to recent developments regarding the Clarity Act regulation, which did not pass a critical Senate procedural vote on Tuesday, shifting traders' focus away from traditional economic indicators.
With these correlations weakening, previously effective protective strategies, like hedging bitcoin against S&P 500 index futures based on the assumption it would move with risk assets, are becoming less dependable. (Typically, if bitcoin follows U.S. stocks, a long position in bitcoin can be offset by shorting the index futures.)
“This means the beta hedge that worked on Monday is not reliable today, and the response to today’s FOMC meeting might be overshadowed by regulatory developments,” Liu added.
The upcoming decision at 2 p.m. ET will be crucial in determining whether bitcoin will reconnect with the dollar and stock market or continue to be influenced by regulatory updates.
The Fed is largely anticipated to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, a move that has already been factored into the market, with most investment banks predicting further hikes by the end of the year.
Unless Chair Kevin Warsh announces a more significant increase or unexpectedly aggressive guidance, some analysts suggest the Dollar Index may decline. A weaker dollar could serve as a favorable factor for bitcoin.
Traders should also monitor Treasury yields, as significant fluctuations in yield can tighten financial conditions and trigger risk-averse flows in the crypto market.
"The current market quietness can likely be linked to the anticipation of signals from the Fed later on Wednesday, which have a greater potential to affect volatility than the already anticipated 25-basis-point rate hike," noted Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, in an email. Stay alert!
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What’s trending
- Fed meeting shaping up to be a challenge for Warsh; Bitcoin could still shine (CoinDesk): The Senate defeat of the Clarity Act has left bitcoin enthusiasts awaiting the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, which some warn could be particularly challenging for Chair Kevin Warsh.
- Crypto longs worth $570 million liquidated following Clarity Act failure (CoinDesk): Bullish futures traders in crypto faced significant losses as the Clarity Act failed, leading to the liquidation of about $571 million in long positions—the largest since August 22.
- Stocks rise as oil prices drop, bonds stabilize ahead of Fed decision (Reuters): Global stock markets saw slight increases on Wednesday as government bond yields and oil price fluctuations steadied in anticipation of a critical U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate announcement. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note stood at 5%, after briefly reaching its highest level since 2007.
Today’s signal
BTC's price chart. (TradingView)The chart illustrates BTC’s hourly candlesticks since August 20.
Prices remained stable above $76,000 until yesterday, when sellers broke below that level, establishing a new lower range.
Chart analysts label this a range breakdown—a bearish indicator that often precedes further declines. It resembles a coiled spring releasing energy in the direction of the break, which, in this instance, is downward.
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