Analysts from Schwab and Hashdex indicate that AI has shifted investments away from digital currencies, while Bitcoin adheres to a typical recovery pattern following halving events.
By Helene Braun|Edited by Oliver Knight Jul 4, 2026, 4:00 p.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on (Getty Images)This year, Bitcoin's BTC$62,863.91 performance has left investors scratching their heads.
While U.S. tech stocks have reached new heights due to excitement over AI, Bitcoin has faltered, hovering just under the $62,000 threshold, and is more than 50% below its October peak.
Asset managers Hashdex and Charles Schwab have released forecasts suggesting that this disconnect is only temporary, albeit for differing reasons.
According to Samir Kerbage, chief investment officer at Hashdex, the recent downturn in crypto reflects more about capital allocation trends than the overall health of the digital asset market.
"Capital follows attention and narratives," Kerbage noted in a midyear market analysis. "Crypto has thrived on this in the past, but right now, focus has shifted. Investments are flowing into AI infrastructure, IPOs, and macro strategies around interest rate expectations."
He contends that this shift has overshadowed important structural advancements that continue to bolster crypto's long-term viability. The infrastructure for institutional investment is growing among banks, brokers, and payment systems, while regulatory clarity in the U.S. is improving, potentially benefiting from the passage of the CLARITY Act this summer.
Simultaneously, the utilization of crypto is on the rise, even as its prices remain low.
In the first half of the year, stablecoin transaction volumes have already surpassed total volumes for all of 2025, and tokenized real-world assets have seen over 60% growth year-to-date. Additionally, crypto ecosystem transactions hit record levels in the second quarter.
Kerbage emphasized, "The gap between market cap and on-chain activity has never been wider," suggesting that the disconnect between pricing and network fundamentals is unlikely to be a long-term phenomenon.
Conversely, Charles Schwab has drawn similar conclusions based on a different perspective.
Instead of focusing on capital movements, Jim Ferraioli, Schwab’s director of digital currencies research and strategy, analyzed Bitcoin's historical market cycles. He argued that Bitcoin's extended recovery aligns with past post-halving trends, even if many investors anticipated that institutional uptake and spot ETFs would fundamentally change Bitcoin's four-year cycle.
(Source: Glassnode and Schwab, as of 5/31/2026.)Ferraioli pointed out that historically, Bitcoin has taken over a year after bear market lows to surpass the production costs of less efficient miners, which he estimates to be around $95,000. The average cost basis for investors is approximately $80,000, suggesting possible selling pressure as investors may seek to exit after recouping losses.
While Ferraioli refrained from stating that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is a market law, he noted that this pattern has become entrenched in investor sentiment.
"Through enough market lore, the so-called 'Bitcoin halving cycle' has become a part of Bitcoin's identity," he remarked, adding that the impact of each cycle might lessen over time as the asset matures and experiences reduced volatility.
Bitcoin NewsRelated AssetsBitcoin$62,863.911.34%Latest Crypto News- 1Trump's crypto token buyers are down $3.8 billion, blockchain data shows1 hour ago
- 2Europe led on crypto regulation. Now implementation must match ambition3 hours ago
- 3EU moves to block retail investors from explosive boom of multibillion-dollar prediction markets3 hours ago
- 4UK's bold new crypto rules promise to unlock global trading, but huge compliance hurdles still threaten the rollout5 hours ago
- 5XRP climbs 8% as record holder losses signal better risk-reward for buyers9 hours ago
- 6Bitcoin’s next parabolic run may need $1 trillion in fresh capital10 hours ago
- 7This sanctioned Russian stablecoin claims it processes billions, but blockchain analysts disagree21 hours ago
- 8Trump says there is ‘nothing wrong’ with family’s crypto windfallJul 3, 2026
- 9Bitcoin whales bought $16.7 billion of bitcoin in 2 weeks even as ETFs bled a record $4 billionJul 3, 2026
- 10Bitcoin, ether traders aren't fully buying the bounce, options markets showJul 3, 2026
Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Building the Zcash Machine: Tachyon and Quantum Readiness
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
By CoinDesk ResearchJun 30, 2026Commissioned byGenZcashZcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
Why it matters:
Zcash’s Tachyon upgrade aims to scale shielded payments, improve quantum readiness, and test whether its funding, security, and governance can hold.
View Full ReportMore From Markets