Your day-ahead look for June 25, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 25, 2026, 11:31 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Inflation data could determine bitcoin's direction on Thursday. (Unsplash)SummaryShowThis is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
The current state of the bitcoin BTC$61,646.55 market reflects significant anxiety, as derivatives traders are paying high premiums for protection against potential losses. This type of market sentiment often precedes a rapid bullish recovery if triggered by favorable news.
For the crypto market, such a catalyst could be the U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Currently, the skew for bitcoin's one-week options shows a nearly 25-point premium for puts compared to calls, indicating a preference for bearish bets. A similar spike in put option pricing was noted in early February when BTC established a temporary bottom just above $60,000, which remained stable for four months.
Analysts expect the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is favored by the Federal Reserve as an inflation gauge, to reveal a 3.4% year-over-year increase for May, up from April's 3.3%, marking the highest level since late 2023, as reported by FactSet. Should this figure disappoint, it would suggest that inflationary pressures are easing, which could weaken the argument for further interest rate hikes by the Fed.
Consequently, a lower-than-anticipated number might prompt a swift shift in market sentiment regarding bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has already bounced back to $61,500 from a recent 20-month low of approximately $59,000.
Moreover, both core and headline inflation figures could be perceived as outdated, given the recent decline in oil prices. WTI crude futures have fallen to $70, well below the $100-plus levels seen during the Iran conflict in March and April. Headline inflation is projected to reach 4.1%, the highest since early 2023, largely influenced by energy costs.
"The primary question is not whether both headline and core figures will rise—they are generally expected to—but how 'stale' these numbers are already," remarked economist Mohamed A. El Erian, the former CEO of Pimco, on X.
"These figures are released prior to the recent sharp decline in oil prices, which will likely lower headline inflation and relieve some of the pressures on core inflation. The ongoing debate centers on the extent of this impact, including whether May will be recognized as the peak month for inflation."
In addition to inflation metrics, keep an eye on the volatility surrounding Strategy's common shares, MSTR, and preferred stock, STRC, as well as AI companies on Wall Street. MSTR is currently exhibiting a well-known bearish pattern (Check the Daily Signal). Remain vigilant!
Read more: For insights into today's altcoin and derivatives activity, check out Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Bitcoin has a new line in the sand. Thursday’s core PCE could stress test it. (CoinDesk): Bitcoin found a new support level at $59,000, and Thursday's U.S. core PCE release may test its mettle.
- Rebound in tech shares pushes world markets higher, while oil prices fall (AP): Global markets experienced a rise, primarily driven by gains in technology sectors in Japan and South Korea as major chip manufacturers surged. Oil prices have retreated closer to levels prior to the Iran conflict.
- MemeCore's M token suddenly crashes 80% with no clear trigger (CoinDesk): The token plummeted from nearly $3 to around $0.50 within hours, erasing nearly $3 billion in market capitalization, without any evident cause.
- Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin goes live in Japan after regulatory approval (CoinDesk): Japan's financial authorities have approved the U.S. dollar-backed token as a new type of payment method, allowing it to enter Asia’s most regulated crypto markets.
Today’s signal
MSTR's daily price swings in candlestick format. (TradingView)The chart illustrates the daily price fluctuations of bitcoin-holder Strategy's (MSTR) common stock since 2022.
The stock has broken down from a classic head-and-shoulders pattern, a bearish reversal formation that often indicates further price declines. This pattern consists of three peaks: a higher central head flanked by two lower, roughly equal shoulders, with a neckline connecting the lows between them.
The left shoulder formed in mid-2024, followed by a significant parabolic rally that established the peak between late 2024 and mid-2025. After a pullback, the price rallied again but failed to reach a new high, ultimately forming the lower right shoulder through 2025 to early 2026.
On Wednesday, the price dropped over 8%, breaking through the yellow trendline support. This confirms the bearish breakdown, suggesting further losses may occur in the upcoming days.
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CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High
CEX Volumes Drop to Lowest Since September 2024 as RWA Perps Hit Record High
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
By CoinDesk ResearchJun 15, 2026In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
Why it matters:
In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41T; the lowest since September 2024. RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend, hitting a new all-time high.
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