On Monday, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.19%, marking its highest point since February 2025, based on data from TradingView. This increase follows a significant rise that began after the release of a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report last Friday.
Since the commencement of the Iran conflict in late February, the yield has surged approximately 80 basis points, with over a 10 basis point increase occurring just last week.
This yield, which closely aligns with the Federal Reserve's policy timeline, is particularly reactive to expectations regarding interest rates. Its ongoing increase suggests that market participants are increasingly betting on the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Fed, a notable shift from earlier this year when the expectation was for at least two rate cuts.
As a result, rising yields are generally perceived as a challenge for riskier assets, such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin experienced a decline of nearly 14% last week, briefly falling below the $60,000 mark. At the time of this report, it was trading at $62,600 after reaching a peak of over $63,600 late on Sunday.