Analysts at Santiment have concluded that for significant growth in digital gold and altcoins, they must move independently from traditional financial markets.
📊 For years, Bitcoin has often moved in the same direction as the stock market, particularly the S&P 500. When stocks climbed during periods of low interest rates and strong economic growth (2021 & 2024, for example), Bitcoin and many altcoins flourished. When stocks fell during… pic.twitter.com/IQMc47b9Zm
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 24, 2026
Typically, Bitcoin follows the S&P 500 index. Digital assets tend to rise during periods of low interest rates and decline when the Federal Reserve raises rates.
However, this trend has broken down over the past six months. Since late August, gold has surged by 51%, the S&P 500 has gained 7%, while Bitcoin has plummeted by 43%. Researchers have noted the weakest correlation between these assets since the crisis in November 2022.
While Bitcoin continues to decline, traditional markets remain stable. Experts suggest that this decoupling is a temporary phenomenon caused by capital outflows. They expect Bitcoin to revert to its usual pattern and start moving in line with stocks again.
In the second half of 2026, analysts anticipate three cuts to the Fed's key interest rate. This easing of monetary policy is expected to create conditions for a rapid upward movement in the asset. Digital gold will gain room for growth and narrow the gap with stock indices.
MVRV Metric Dynamics
Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish highlighted the normalization of the MVRV ratio. The decline in this metric has brought cryptocurrency valuations back to levels with historically favorable risk-reward ratios. However, Bitcoin has yet to reach a zone of deep undervaluation.
$BTC MVRV has compressed back toward its long-term mean, with prior +1σ extremes now fully reset.
— Chris Beamish (@ChrisBeamish_) February 24, 2026
Valuations are approaching levels that have historically marked better risk-reward, though not yet in deep undervalued territory.https://t.co/UMCgOJKwZQ pic.twitter.com/5JHnEeLGeh
The realized capitalization of the coin has dropped from a November peak of $1.12 trillion to $1.09 trillion. Over the past month, this figure has decreased by 2.26%, reflecting ongoing capital outflows.
According to researcher Axel Adler Jr., the largest share of Bitcoin supply (25.9%) consists of coins that have remained inactive for three to six months. Most of these positions were opened near price peaks and are currently at a loss.
The analyst described the current market phase as "neutral-defensive." Investors are avoiding mass capitulation, but there is still no influx of new capital to drive prices up.
On February 24, analysts at Matrixport pointed out a key obstacle for Bitcoin's recovery.