For the first time since mid-2022, the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and gold has fallen to zero. Analyst Yashu Gola from Cointelegraph believes this indicator could turn negative by the end of January.
Historically, a decoupling of these assets has preceded rallies in the first cryptocurrency. In four similar instances, Bitcoin's price rose by an average of 56% within two months following the signal.
The only exception was in May 2021, when prices dropped by 26% due to the mining ban in China and Tesla's refusal to accept digital assets.
Current macroeconomic conditions are favorable for growth. Global liquidity (M2 aggregate) is increasing, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is winding down its quantitative tightening policy.
Matt Hougan, head of research at Bitwise, stated:
“Bitcoin bull markets coincide with periods of rising global liquidity. A new easing cycle will act as a catalyst for prices through 2026.”
In 2025, gold rose by 65%, while Bitcoin showed weak performance. However, Hougan believes that in 2026, the coin will regain its leadership.
He added that the low long-term correlation between the assets allows Bitcoin to enhance portfolio returns without the risks associated with "leveraging gold."
Analyst Tuur Demeester confirmed that the acceleration of "money printing" remains the primary driver of the market.
Bitcoin performance vs change in global M2. While gold & silver have been absorbing demand for inflation hedges, accelerated money printing remains a major tailwind for bitcoin. HT @DigitalAssets
— Tuur Demeester (@TuurDemeester) January 12, 2026
From the report: "Historically, bitcoin bull markets have aligned with periods of… pic.twitter.com/83IEm8g6VN
Trader Midas noted similarities between the current chart and the cycle of 2020-2021. The price is now emerging from an accumulation phase, similar to what occurred before the parabolic rise to $70,000.
This setup looks similar to 2020–2021
— Midas (@DeFiMidas) January 9, 2026
If it repeats, $BTC could reach $150k
BULL RUN IS COMING pic.twitter.com/rBQXSqbo5X
He believes that a repeat of this scenario and the realization of a 56% growth potential could push Bitcoin into the $150,000 range.
Market Reset
Since early October, the open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures on Binance has dropped by over 31%. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost described this as a sign of market healing and reduced leverage.
Deleveraging signal as BTC OI drops by 31%
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 14, 2026
“Historically, they have often marked significant bottoms, effectively resetting the market and creating a stronger base for a potential bullish recovery.” – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/JkYoKfg4Ql
On October 6, the indicator reached a historical high, exceeding $15 billion. In comparison, during the peak of the bull phase in November 2021, the open interest was only $5.7 billion. In 2025, trader interest in derivatives nearly tripled.
Following the record, there was a correction to around $10 billion — below the 180-day moving average. This decline was accompanied by a wave of liquidations.
According to the analyst, the current deleveraging phase will "heal the market":
“Historically, such periods have often indicated the formation of a bottom, effectively 'resetting' the market and creating a foundation for future recovery.”
Darkfost warned that a growth scenario is not guaranteed. If Bitcoin's price continues to fall, open interest may decrease even further, signaling a deeper correction and a full transition into a bearish phase.
Analysts have suggested that digital gold could surpass the psychologically significant level of $100,000 by the end of January.