CryptoQuant warns of a potential Bitcoin correction as profit-taking peaks and demand weakens ahead of key support levels.
CryptoQuant has sounded alarm bells over the possibility of a Bitcoin price correction, particularly as unrealized on-chain profits for short-term holders hit a 21-month high.
Profit-taking is evident, with unrealized profits reaching 33% for traders. Demand is softening, while the bull market shows signs of weakness. The $80,000 mark is a critical support level to monitor.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 29, 2026
Recently, Bitcoin managed to stay above the 365-day moving average and peaked at $87,400, the highest in eight months. Nevertheless, Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that the current price rally is losing steam.
The unrealized profit for short-term traders has soared to 33%, marking the highest point since December 2024. Historically, such high profit margins trigger traders to cash out. Notably, on September 22, profit-taking peaked when investors realized profits of 25,700 BTC, setting a 2026 record. Typically, significant profit-taking at local highs leads to market corrections.
The altcoin sector is also feeling pressure, as the volume of transactions transferring altcoins to exchanges spiked to 76,000, with unique sending addresses reaching 51,000. This is the highest level since October 2025, indicating a potential sell-off preparation among investors.
Weakening Demand Signals
There appears to be a decline in buying interest across both spot and derivatives markets. Demand in the spot market has dropped by 170,000 BTC over the past month. The inflow into futures has also decreased significantly, falling from 164,000 BTC in mid-September to just 16,000 BTC at the month’s end. Such declines in capital make it challenging to sustain upward momentum.
Should a correction take place, the first key support level to watch is the 365-day moving average around $80,000, followed by additional support levels at approximately $71,000 and $67,000. Analysts suggest a pullback to these levels may not disrupt the overall bullish trend but would signify healthy consolidation.
Daniella Hathorn of Capital.com highlighted that the $87,000-$88,000 range represents immediate resistance, while support levels near $84,000-$85,000 could come into play if prices decline further. Furthermore, JPMorgan indicates that the cost of Bitcoin mining stands at around $85,000; sustaining prices above this threshold could alleviate selling pressures from miners.
Bitfinex suggests that Bitcoin might consolidate between $84,000 and its annual opening price of $87,722 as the month and quarter close, with the outcome being contingent on spot demand strength.
Macroeconomic Influences and Institutional Interest
Recent tightening financial conditions, following the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, have negatively impacted market sentiment. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose, alongside an increase in real yields, which has traditionally stifled capital flow into cryptocurrencies.
Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com, noted that rising crude oil prices are also a detrimental factor affecting market sentiment. Without resolving energy risks, Bitcoin's path to recovery remains uncertain, although the technical outlook still appears positive. Investor focus is now shifting toward the upcoming core PCE index release on September 30.
Despite the challenges, Bitfinex has noted Bitcoin’s resilience during historically weak September performance. TD Cowen's Lance Vitalz remarked that institutional investors are now focusing on Bitcoin's practical uses rather than merely acquiring the asset. As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $83,022.
