CryptoQuant has issued a warning regarding the potential for a short-term correction in Bitcoin, noting that unrealized on-chain profits for short-term holders have reached a 21-month peak.

Holders are cashing in.

Profit-taking just hit a 2026 high, trader unrealized profits reached 33%, and demand is fading.

The bull market is intact, but the rally is showing cracks.

$80K is the first support to watch. pic.twitter.com/Hdw4JAtRF9

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 29, 2026

Last week, Bitcoin successfully maintained its position above the 365-day moving average and reached an eight-month high of $87,400. The Bull Score index from CryptoQuant stands at 90 out of 100, indicating a bullish market. However, Julio Moreno, the company's head of research, commented that the current rally is losing momentum.

The unrealized profit margin for short-term traders has surged to 33%, the highest level since December 2024, which historically encourages traders to lock in profits.

The peak of profit-taking occurred on September 22, when investors realized profits of 25,700 BTC, setting a daily record for 2026. Such activities at local highs often precede market cool-downs.

Signs of selling pressure have also emerged in the altcoin sector. Over the past week, the number of transactions transferring altcoins to exchanges increased to 76,000, with unique sending addresses reaching 51,000. These figures represent record levels since October 2025. Moreno emphasized that the influx of funds is coming from a variety of wallets, and transferring coins to exchanges typically indicates preparations for selling.

Declining Demand

Interest in purchasing is waning in both the spot and derivatives markets. Visible demand in the spot market has decreased by 170,000 BTC over the last 30 days. The influx of speculative liquidity into futures, which has been a key driver of recent growth, fell from 164,000 BTC in mid-September to just 16,000 BTC by the end of the month. Without new capital, maintaining an upward trend becomes challenging.

If a correction occurs, the first support level to monitor will be the 365-day moving average around $80,000. Additional support levels are situated at approximately $71,000 (200-day moving average) and $67,000 (on-chain cost basis for traders). An analyst suggests that a pullback to these levels would not invalidate the upward trend but rather serve as a healthy consolidation within the ongoing bullish cycle.

Capital.com analyst Daniella Hathorn has identified the range of $87,000-$88,000 as the nearest resistance, while $84,000-$85,000 serves as the first support area in the event of a decline. According to JPMorgan, the current cost of Bitcoin mining is around $85,000. Keeping the price above this level reduces pressure on miners and minimizes the risk of forced sell-offs on their part.

Bitfinex has indicated that the base scenario involves price consolidation between $84,000 and the annual opening at $87,722 until the month and quarter close on September 30. The outcome of this consolidation will depend on the strength of spot demand.

Macroeconomic Pressures and Institutional Interest

Bitfinex noted a tightening of financial conditions following the recent Federal Reserve interest rate hike. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased from 5.01% to 5.17%, while real yields adjusted for inflation rose to 2.83%. The rise in yields of risk-free assets is dampening capital inflow into cryptocurrencies.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial analyst at Capital.com, added that rising crude oil prices are also weighing on market sentiment. As long as energy risks persist, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to regain momentum, although the technical outlook remains constructive. Investor attention is focused on the release of the core PCE index on September 30.

Nonetheless, Bitfinex highlighted Bitcoin's resilience, as it has successfully navigated historically weak September performance. TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitalz noted after the BitcoinTreasuries conference in New York that institutional investors have shifted their focus: instead of debating the merits of acquiring the asset, discussions have moved toward practical applications of Bitcoin and the development of capital market infrastructure around it.

As of the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at approximately $83,022.

Hourly BTC/USDT chart from Binance. Source: TradingView.

In September, analysts from JPMorgan indicated that a decline in demand for hedging in Bitcoin ETFs could provide stronger support for the asset than for gold.

Follow ForkLog on social media

Telegram (main channel) Facebook X

If you find an error in the text, highlight it and press CTRL+ENTER