Amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, Bitcoin's price fell to $62,000. However, analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes the real cause of the correction is not geopolitics, but volatility in Japan's bond market.
This correction has, in my opinion, little to do with everything in the Middle East.
It has a lot more to do with the Japanese Yield jumping again.
I expect to see a breakdown in Yield over the next 1-2 weeks, which would automatically lead to a positive breakout in #Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/PMM60DwD1n— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 13, 2026
According to The Kobeissi Letter, on July 9, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGB) reached 2.9% for the first time in 30 years. Within less than a day, it sharply dropped by 16 basis points to 2.71%, marking the largest daily decline since April 2025.
For 30-year bonds on the same day, the yield fell by 13 basis points to 3.87%, the biggest drop since January 21 of this year.
Japan's bond market is seeing historic volatility.
The 10Y Japanese government bond yield dropped -16 basis points on Friday, to 2.71%, the largest daily decline since April 2025.
This follows a rise to 2.90% on Thursday, the first time the 10Y JGB yield reached that level in… pic.twitter.com/yXn40Z2cvK— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 12, 2026
The reversal occurred after Japan's finance minister announced plans to stimulate pension funds, including the country's largest, GPIF, which has $1.8 trillion in assets, to increase investments in domestic assets.
If this happens, the structure could gradually redirect part of its portfolio from foreign securities to Japanese government bonds. This would alleviate pressure on the domestic bond market and support the yen by reducing capital outflows.
Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter expect volatility in Japan's bond and currency markets to persist.
Van de Poppe noted that this situation triggered Bitcoin's movement. He compared the correction to several past episodes, including April 2025, when following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of global tariffs on imports, the yield on 30-year JGBs rose by 100 basis points, impacting other markets.
In order to be monitoring the markets: this is the most important chart to look at.
Everybody is so busy looking at the Middle-East and the Strait of Hormuz, while the actual importance lies in the Japanese bond markets.
The volatility is remarkably the same as during a few… https://t.co/R29eDRoiqH— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 12, 2026
The expert anticipates a downward reversal within one to two weeks, which he believes will automatically lead to an increase in Bitcoin's price.
At the time of writing, the digital gold is trading around $62,700.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.On-Chain Analysis
The Bitcoin market remains weak even without external shocks, noted analyst Darkfost. He highlighted the behavior of short-term Bitcoin holders (STH).
There’s a dynamic that characterizes every bear market well: seeing STH underwater for an extended period.
💥 Currently, $BTC has been trading below the STH cost basis for more than 9 months.
We can see on this chart that these long periods of STH distress have always been tied… pic.twitter.com/Gy5bQX2NkR— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) July 12, 2026
According to his data, the asset has been trading below the purchase price for over nine months. Such prolonged periods have historically coincided with bear market phases.
The cost basis for STH is currently $70,700 and continues to act as resistance. In May, the price tested this level around $82,000 but failed to hold. Since then, the metric has declined as some investors recently bought more of the asset, lowering their average entry price.
Darkfost identified weak spot demand as a key issue for the market. The 30-day moving average remains negative since December 2025.
Today the main problem in the $BTC market is spot demand.
It will be hard to see the market shift trend if this dynamic doesn’t change.
🔴 Spot demand (30-dma) has remained in negative territory since December 2025.
In mid-June demand hit a negative extreme at -273,000… pic.twitter.com/ZMoj5wtZvd— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) July 11, 2026
In mid-June, the metric reached a low of -273,000 BTC and is now around -100,000 BTC. Some demand is shifting to futures, but speculative demand cannot form the basis for a sustainable reversal. Until this dynamic changes, Bitcoin's underlying trend will remain negative, according to the specialist.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto pointed out a partial normalization in the market. He observed that the Composite Index v.2.0 is currently around 0.484. This is below the elevated risk zone but above levels typical of past cycle bottoms:
- around zero in January 2015;
- 0.05 in December 2018;
- 0.13 in November 2022.
Zizcrypto described the situation as a partial reset: recovery has already begun, but the depth of the correction has not yet reached levels seen before.
It is worth noting that on July 8, Glassnode stated that conditions for a trend reversal in the market have already formed. According to them, confirmation of growth requires a hold above $76,600.