The cryptocurrency market rally in 2024 has been less significant than in previous cycles. Given this factor, the likelihood of a deep bear market is also decreasing, according to Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading.
This is a funny chart.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 7, 2026
The previous bull run in 2024 on #Bitcoin has been significantly shallow.
It means that we haven't seen the upside volatility that we almost always get: heavy upwards returns and a parabolic curve.
Given that we haven't seen that, the likelihood of a… pic.twitter.com/v2aLfLkLip
He noted that during the latest bullish phase, there was no sharp price increase for Bitcoin accompanied by "high returns and parabolic curves on the charts."
"Since all indicators are currently at their lows, now is truly a great time to take a bullish position and expect the markets to shift into a positive trend over the next 12-24 months," added van de Poppe.
According to an analyst known as Darkfost, amidst heightened volatility in recent weeks, some market participants are "staying calm and just observing."
📊 While volatility is in full swing across the markets and everyone seems to be reacting, some participants remain calm and simply observe.
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) March 7, 2026
According to Coin Value Days Destroyed, long term holders (LTHs) have become very inactive and appear to prefer holding their Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/oCjG6qhwlf
The Coin Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric indicates that long-term holders (LTH) have become extremely inactive and prefer to hold rather than sell their Bitcoins.
"Like Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which measures the number of days coins are held, CVDD adds a value component to the formula. This allows us to assess whether LTH activity significantly impacts the market," explained the expert.
With the current CVDD value around 0.34, the value spent by long-term holders is comparable to levels seen in bear markets. During downturns, this group of investors tends to adopt a HODL strategy.
Darkfost observed that during the last cycle, local peaks formed when CVDD exceeded 2—a level reflecting significant selling by LTH.
Critical Level
Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, believes that Bitcoin must maintain the $63,700 level.
Bitcoin cannot lose $63,700 ⚠️
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) March 7, 2026
If this key on-chain level breaks, it could trigger a new downside move in the market.
The next risk levels would be:
• $57,000
• $52,400
• $48,700 (worst-case scenario)
It is important to note that these levels are dynamic and update daily,… pic.twitter.com/nnMojP9PqZ
If Bitcoin fails to hold this level, it risks dropping further. The analyst calculated the following critical indicators based on Fibonacci:
- $57,000;
- $52,400;
- $48,700 (worst-case scenario).
"These values are dynamic and update daily, adjusting based on investor behavior. When the market loses key structural levels, it often marks the beginning of a new redistribution phase," added Wedson.
Analyst Willy Woo emphasized that despite Bitcoin's recent drop from $70,000, investor inflows have been steadily recovering since mid-February.
Meanwhile, the expected volatility (VIX) in the stock market suggests a shift to a "risk-on" strategy in the coming weeks.
"Bitcoin fell too quickly, considering the early stage of the bear market and current conditions," noted Woo.
The expert believes that the growth of digital assets will resume by the end of April, but this depends on liquidity inflows.
Recall that CryptoQuant considered Bitcoin's recovery to $74,000 a temporary bounce rather than the start of a new bull market.