Morning Minute is a daily newsletter authored by Tyler Warner. The views and analyses presented are his own and do not necessarily represent those of Decrypt. Also, check out our new daily news show that covers the top stories in just 5 minutes, available on Apple Pod or Spotify.
Good morning!
Here are the leading updates:
- Major cryptocurrencies experienced fluctuations over the weekend, trailing behind stocks; BTC remains stable around $60k
- Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.79B in outflows over the week, marking the third-highest total ever
- Brian Armstrong addressed concerns regarding the Coinbase app's promotion of gambling
- Unregistered crypto companies in Europe are bracing for challenges ahead of the July 1 MiCa deadline
- ANSEM experienced a decline after a weekend surge to $120M, currently sitting at $80M
📉 Bitcoin is on track for a rare consecutive quarterly loss
Bitcoin is trading slightly below $60,000 and is poised for an unusual back-to-back quarterly decline.
This quarter, it has decreased approximately 12% following a 22% drop in Q1, breaking its typical strong performance in the second quarter, with both the quarter and the first half concluding on Tuesday. The selloff reached a low of $58,115 on June 26, marking a 20-month low, and the subsequent recovery has been minimal.
The reasons for this downturn remain consistent:
- Continued outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs (an additional $1.79B this past week)
- A hawkish stance from the Fed under Kevin Warsh
- The dollar is at its highest in 12 months
- Funds rotating into semiconductor and memory-chip stocks benefiting from the AI surge.
Altcoins are experiencing even greater declines. ETH has dropped about 25% this quarter and 47% year-to-date, while Dogecoin, XRP, and HYPE have all seen double-digit losses over the past week. Solana has fared slightly better but is still down 43% this year.
The consecutive losses contribute to the ongoing debate about whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle is breaking, as another negative year in 2026 would disrupt the usual pattern of three up years followed by one down year. Nonetheless, bullish analysts point to historical trends.
Every instance when $BTC closed two consecutive red six-month candles was followed by a three-year uptrend.
The second red six-month candle closes in two days.
Everyone knows what that signifies. https://t.co/lz4uTuFltH pic.twitter.com/1CzDXJ1XR0
— 𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 (@nobrainflip) June 28, 2026
In past occurrences where Bitcoin closed two red six-month candles consecutively, like in 2018 and 2022, it was typically followed by a three-year bullish trend. The closing of the second red six-month candle occurs in two days.
Coupled with a Fear and Greed index reading of 18, indicating extreme fear, the current setup may either signal the onset of a more profound decline or resemble the capitulation that has marked previous bottoms. We can only hope it is the latter…
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets
- Major cryptocurrencies remained mostly unchanged over the weekend; BTC -1% at $59.8k; ETH -1% at $1,570; SOL +1% at $72; HYPE steady at $63.13
- ENA (+4%), AVAX (+4%) and AAVE (+3%) were the top gainers
- Oil remained at $69.80; Gold down 1% at $4,050
- Stock futures are showing positive movement following a new US-Iran truce; DOW +0.5%, Nasdaq +1.3%
- Brian Armstrong responded to criticism regarding the Coinbase app's promotion of gambling on BTC price fluctuations and sports betting, clarifying that users have the freedom to act as they wish but that Coinbase should not aggressively promote such activities
- Coinbase and OKX are targeting Binance’s Euro customers as their MiCa license approaches expiration on July 1
- Strategy’s enterprise mNAV has dropped below 1 for the first time, indicating the market now values the company at less than its Bitcoin holdings, removing the premium that previously allowed Saylor to raise capital and purchase more BTC
- Securitize, a tokenization firm backed by BlackRock, is set to go public this week under the ticker SECZ via a SPAC merger on the NYSE
- Cardone Capital is channeling real estate income to purchase Bitcoin during price declines, with Grant Cardone investing rental income into BTC on dips
- Binance founder CZ attributed the poor performance of crypto in 2026 to a combination of AI, global tensions, and the four-year cycle, noting that there is no single reason for the market’s roughly 50% drop over the last year
Corporate Treasuries & ETFs
- Bitcoin ETFs experienced $444M in net outflows on Friday, bringing the week's total to $1.79B; ETH ETFs saw $274M in outflows last week
- The average investor in BlackRock's IBIT is down 40% at current prices
- Michael Saylor hinted at additional Bitcoin purchases despite the ongoing decline in Strategy’s stock
Meme Coin Tracker
- Meme coin leaders saw red this week; DOGE -13%, SHIB -10%, PEPE -18%, PENGU -8%, TRUMP -12%, BONK -9%
- ANSEM surged from ~$1M to $120M over the weekend, marking one of the largest movements in months
- WYNN (+38x), Solangeles (+90%) and alon (+80%) were the top gainers on Solana
- Base movers included Rave (+30%) and POD (+22%)
📈 Myriad Market of the Day
💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker
- Hyper Foundation announced $10M in grants to support builders affected by the USDH discontinuation
- The same sequencer issue caused the outages on Base that occurred on June 25 and 26
🚚 NFT Updates
- NFT leaders remained relatively stable over the weekend; Punks +1% at 32.5 ETH, BAYC +1% at 8.85 ETH, Pudgy -1% at 4.5 ETH; Hypurr’s +10% at 228 HYPE
- Creepz (+77%) and Chimpers (+20%) were the top movers
- Several Punks sold for prices well above the floor this weekend, including a 3D Hoodie for 278 ETH, a VR for 135 ETH, and a Pilot for 100 ETH