The first cryptocurrency is set to collapse within the next 7 to 11 years, according to Justin Bons, founder of the European company Cyber Capital.
BTC will collapse within 7 to 11 years from now!
ā Justin Bons (@Justin_Bons) January 15, 2026
First, the mining industry will fall, as the security budget shrinks
That is when the attacks begin; censorship & double-spends
Core will then have to increase inflation beyond 21M, splitting the chain & that will be the end! š§µā¦ pic.twitter.com/HqFmhW480L
Problems will arise from a collapse in mining, leading to a reduced security budget for the network and resulting in attacks such as double spending and blockchain reorganization. Bons believes this will culminate in a chain fork.
In its current form, Bitcoin must either double its price every four years or significantly increase the volume of online fees collected.
"The code and mathematics do not lie; this can all be independently verified. We must prioritize the truth, no matter how much we like the idea of Bitcoin ā it is the naked king," the expert stated.
He argues that the current level of network fees is unable to keep pace with the necessary growth.
To maintain blockchain security, the token's price must double during each four-year halving cycle. In the current system, Bitcoin must either grow at the planned rate or the volume of fees must increase significantly.
"That is why BTC's security will inevitably continue to decline until attacks become profitable. This allows us to roughly estimate the timeline for this collapse (7-11 years), as it is based on the halving cycle," the expert explained.
He identified a risk zone during the next two to three block reward reductions.
Referring to miner revenues, Bons claims that this metric shows Bitcoin's security is currently lower than it was five years ago.
He considers miner revenue a more significant metric than hashrate.
"Computational power does not equal security. Most Bitcoin influencers do not understand how PoW (Proof-of-Work) works, leading to a deep public misunderstanding of the flaws in BTC's security model. This is because hashrate is largely a meaningless metric when assessing risks," Bons asserted.
One potential solution the expert suggested is lifting the 21 million coin cap on Bitcoin issuance.
It is worth noting that the first cryptocurrency is expected to surpass gold as the primary store of value, according to analyst David Eng.