Peter Brandt predicts a drop in cryptocurrency to $58,000.
The price of digital gold failed to hold above a key level and has returned to the range it occupied for the past two months. Veteran trader Peter Brandt forecasts a decline of the asset to $58,000.
58k to $62k is where I think it is going $BTC
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) January 19, 2026
If it does not go there I will NOT be ashamed, so I do not need to see you trolls screenshot this in the future
I am wrong 50% of the time. It does not bother me to be wrong pic.twitter.com/NDOuSrqLwa
Meanwhile, co-founder of Material Indicators, Keith Alan, noted the formation of a "death cross" on the Bitcoin chart.
If you were caught off guard by the Bitcoin selloff, you simply haven't been paying attention to the right things.
— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) January 19, 2026
This move had nothing to do with narratives. We've seen it developing in the charts, and have been talking about it for over a month.
Historically, a Death Cross… pic.twitter.com/xmO1Hl90qe
According to him, this pattern formed when the 21-week simple moving average (SMA) crossed below the 51-week SMA. Historically, this has signaled an approaching macro bottom.
The next key support could be the 100-week SMA at $86,900, the expert noted.
On January 20, before the Wall Street trading opened, Bitcoin attempted to test the $90,000 mark but failed due to rising concerns about a trade war between the U.S. and the EU.
A trader known as Daan Crypto Trades remarked that "the breakout failed," and attention has now shifted to the annual opening of 2026 around $87,000 as potential support.
$BTC Now fully back into the ~$84K-$94K range it has spent the past 2 months in already.
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) January 20, 2026
Breakout failed and doesn't make for a pretty look now.
Been talking about that yearly open likely being taken out at some point as it's rare to see no wick below on the yearly candle.
So… pic.twitter.com/xn3HwnCMHr
"I already said that the yearly open will likely be taken out at some point: it's rare to see a yearly candle without a lower wick. So, I think it's better to get this over with sooner rather than later. I'm still just watching, as I see no reason to trade in this 'chop'," he wrote.
Other Assessments and Geopolitical Risks
Traders on the decentralized platform Derive.xyz and the derivatives exchange Deribit assessed the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 by the end of June at 30%.
According to Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, the options market shows a skew towards downside protection.
"Participants are estimating a 30% chance of a drop below $80,000 by June 26, while the likelihood of rising above $120,000 during the same period is only 19%," he noted in a comment to CoinDesk.
The anticipated market crash would push prices back to April's lows. At that time, digital gold dropped to $75,000 after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports from other countries, shaking global markets.
Dawson considers the geopolitical factor crucial for assessing the future movement of cryptocurrencies. He stated that the risks of deteriorating relations with Europe due to the U.S. plans to seize Greenland could lead to even greater losses.
"The growing geopolitical tension between the U.S. and Europe—especially around Greenland—raises the risk of a regime shift towards a more volatile environment, which is not yet reflected in spot prices," the expert explained.
Amid threats from Trump to impose a 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries starting February 1, the yield on U.S. ten-year Treasury bonds, considered the safest asset in the world, also surged.
The yield rose to 4.28%—the highest level since September 3.
The yield on government bonds serves as a foundation for the global borrowing system. Its increase will lead to higher loan rates worldwide, as banks add their risk premium to this "risk-free" base.
For the markets, the rise in U.S. bond yields has become a troubling signal. A high yield makes speculative investments less attractive.
Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and U.S. Treasury bond yields, the price of Bitcoin has decreased by 2.2% over the past day. At the time of writing, the coin is trading around $90,900.
Reasons for Optimism
The Hash Ribbons indicator has generated a buy signal. This was recorded when the 30-day moving average of hash rate fell below its 60-day exponential moving average (EMA).
Hash Ribbons indicator for Bitcoin. Source: Capriole Investments.
This type of crossover traditionally marks phases of miner capitulation, when less efficient operators are forced to cease operations.
Analysts from On-Chain Mind shared a similar observation.
We’re currently seeing one of the largest Hash Ribbons signals on record.
— On-Chain Mind (@OnChainMind) January 19, 2026
Hash Ribbons track miner stress by comparing short- and long-term hash rate trends. When miners capitulate and then recover, it often marks the end of forced selling.
Historically, once this phase… pic.twitter.com/uEzmS0LboC
The last buy signal was recorded in July 2025, after which the price of Bitcoin rose by 25%—from $98,000 to $123,200.
Another bullish signal comes from the fear and greed index. CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno noted the formation of a "golden cross" on its chart, which traditionally heralds potential growth.
Source: CryptoQuant.
"Such crossovers usually occur after prolonged periods of fear and often arise in zones of local price compression, rather than at global highs. As seen on the chart, in most marked cases, the price showed positive dynamics in the following weeks," he emphasized.
A critical threshold for Bitcoin has become the $90,000 level—a key psychological and technical support that bulls need to maintain, according to an analyst known as Crypto Solutions.
He stated that as long as the price stays above this mark, buyers retain the initiative and leave room for a new rally.
Technically, this level coincides with two important benchmarks:
- 200-period moving average on the four-hour chart;
- the lower boundary of the "bear flag" pattern on the weekly timeframe.
A loss of $90,000 could drastically change the picture, noted Crypto Solutions.
"If the level is breached and the weekly candle closes below, market dynamics could shift into a negative phase. In this case, the next likely benchmark would be the $80,000-$85,000 zone—a significant demand area on the daily chart," he added.
Should it fall below $80,000, key support levels would be $74,500 (April 2025 low) and $68,000 (200-week moving average).
The most pessimistic scenario according to the "bear flag" pattern points to a potential target around $57,050. This level could serve as a reversal point if a full-blown bear trend develops.
Analyst under the pseudonym Rekt Capital highlighted the importance of the 2025 opening level—$93,500.
#BTC
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) January 19, 2026
Bitcoin has indeed rejected from the cluster of Bull Market EMAs, forcing a post-breakout retest of the $93,500 level
In fact, Bitcoin has marginally Weekly Closed above $93,500, therefore resembling more the April 2025 Weekly Close above $93,500 than the November 2024 one… https://t.co/yaEE3QcJRK pic.twitter.com/DHhhEZKLJp
"Bitcoin actually closed the week slightly above $93,500, which resembles more the weekly close in April 2025 above this mark (green circles) than the November 2024 one," he stated.
According to the expert, to confirm a bullish trend, the asset needs to stay above this mark for a week.
Recall that Glassnode analysts noted improvements in the spot market for the first cryptocurrency. Trading volumes are increasing, and selling pressure is easing.